Latest update from the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, this morning (July 8) the position of super typhoon Bavi (Vietnamese name is Typhoon Ba Vi) was at about 17 degrees North latitude - 134.1 degrees East longitude. The typhoon intensity decreased to level 16, gusting above level 17. Currently, the typhoon is about 1200 km east of Luzon Island (Philippines), about 1500 km southeast of Taiwan (China).
According to Ms. Tran Thi Thuy Nga - Weather Forecast Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, it is forecasted that in the next 24 hours, super typhoon Bavi will move mainly in the West direction at a fairly fast speed, around 20 km/h.
From noon and afternoon tomorrow (July 9), the storm will change direction to move west-northwest, speed 20 km/h and head towards Taiwan (China). It is forecast that around the night of July 11, early morning of July 12 (ie Saturday night to Sunday morning), the storm will make landfall in Fujian province (China). After that, the storm will go deep into mainland China and gradually weaken" - Ms. Nga said.
The Vietnam Hydrometeorological Administration continues to assess that the possibility of super typhoon Bavi entering the East Sea is very low (below 10%).
However, with super strong intensity, super typhoon Bavi may also affect the weather of the East Sea. From near dawn and July 9th, southwest winds in the southern area of the East Sea (including the Truong Sa special zone sea area) will gradually strengthen to level 6. From July 10th - July 11th, the entire north, central and southern areas of the East Sea (including the Hoang Sa and Truong Sa special zones sea areas), winds may strengthen to level 6 - 7, sea waves are 3 - 5 m high, the sea is very rough" - Ms. Nga advised.
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting is still closely monitoring the developments of Super Typhoon Bavi.
Super typhoon Bavi is the 3rd super typhoon operating in the Northwest Pacific region (super typhoon No. 1 is Sinlaku, super typhoon No. 2 is Mekkhala).
In Vietnam, from the beginning of the storm season to now, 2 tropical cyclones have been recorded, including 1 tropical depression and 1 storm.
In July 2026, storms/tropical depressions are forecast to operate in the East Sea area and directly affect Vietnam's mainland at a level equivalent to the multi-year average. According to average data, in July, there were 1.6 storms in the East Sea area and 0.9 storms made landfall in Vietnam.
It is forecast that the number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea in 2026 tends to be lower than in 2025 and lower than the multi-year average. It is predicted that for the entire storm season of 2026, there will be about 8 - 11 storms/tropical depressions appearing in the East Sea area and possibly including 3 - 5 storms directly affecting our mainland.
According to multi-year averages, the entire storm season has about 12.7 storms in the East Sea, of which 5.1 have made landfall.
In the year of El Nino, there are usually fewer storms in the East Sea area as well as direct impacts on the mainland compared to the average of many years, but the risk of natural disasters related to storms is still very high. It is necessary to be wary of complex trajectories as well as strong storm intensity or being more unusual than every year, so people should absolutely not be subjective when the peak storm season is approaching.
