New tropical depression likely to strengthen into storm in the East Sea
This afternoon, September 23, the Department of Hydrometeorology (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment) said that a tropical depression has just appeared in the eastern part of the Philippines. It is forecasted that September 24 will likely strengthen into a storm, September 27 is likely to move into the East Sea to become storm No. 10.
Currently, forecasts for the development of storm No. 10 are still very dispersed. European and Japanese forecasts predict that Typhoon No. 10 will move north, towards the north of China or the southern part of China. However, the US forecast predicts that the storm will move into the Central region (focusing on the provinces from Ha Tinh - Quang Ngai).
The assessment of the Vietnam Meteorological Agency believes that the possibility of the storm moving into the Central region is the most likely scenario because at this stage, according to the climate law, the storm will move into the Central region. The possibility of this storm strengthening to super typhoon or a storm stronger than level 13 is not high. The Department of Hydrometeorology continued to monitor and around September 25, issued a storm warning near the East Sea.
Storm No. 9 Ragasa weakens before making landfall
As for storm No. 9 Ragasa, according to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, at 1:00 p.m. on September 23, the center of the super typhoon was at about 20.3 degrees north latitude; 117.1 degrees east longitude, in the northeastern sea of the northern East Sea. The strongest wind near the center of the super typhoon is level 16-17 (184-221km/h), gusting over level 17. The super typhoon is moving west-northwest at a speed of about 20km/h.
It is forecasted that in the next 24 hours, the super typhoon will move west-northwest at a speed of 20-25km/h and gradually weaken.
At 1:00 p.m. on September 24, the center of the storm was at about 21.7 degrees north latitude; 112.6 degrees east longitude, in the coastal waters of Guangdong province (China), about 480km east of Mong Cai ( guangning). Strong intensity level 15-16, gust above level 17.
The danger zone is north of latitude 18 degrees north, east of longitude 110.5 degrees east. The natural disaster risk level is level 4 for the northern sea area of the North East Sea, level 3 for the eastern part of the northern Gulf of Tonkin.
It is forecasted that in the next 36 hours, the storm will continue to move west-northwest at a speed of 20-25km/h and weaken further.
At 1:00 a.m. on September 25, the center of the storm was at about 21.6 degrees north latitude; 110.0 degrees east longitude, in the area north of the Lusi Peninsula (China), about 220km east of Mong Cai (Quang Ninh). Strong intensity level 12-13, gust level 15.
The danger zone is 18.5 degrees north latitude north of the line, and 115.0 degrees east of the line west of the line. The natural disaster risk level is level 4 for the northwestern sea area of the northern East Sea, level 3 for the Gulf of Tonkin.
It is forecasted that in the next 48 hours, the storm will move west-southwest at a speed of 20-25km/h and continue to weaken.
At 1:00 p.m. on September 25, the center of the storm was at about 21.3 degrees north latitude; 107.8 degrees east longitude, in the coastal waters of Quang Ninh - Hai Phong. Strong intensity level 9-10, gust level 12.
The danger zone is north of latitude 19 degrees north, west of longitude 112 degrees east. Level 3 natural disaster risk for the Gulf of Tonkin, northeast of the country and Thanh Hoa.
It is forecasted that in the next 72 hours, the storm will move west-southwest at a speed of about 25km/h and weaken into a low pressure area. At 1:00 p.m. on September 26, the center of the low pressure area was at about 20.6 degrees north latitude; 102.4 degrees east longitude, in the Upper Laos area, with an intensity below level 6.
At sea, the sea area north of the northern East Sea will have strong winds of level 10-14, the area near the center of the super typhoon will have winds of level 15-17, gusts above level 17, waves over 10m high, and rough seas. From September 24, the eastern sea area of the Gulf of Tonkin (including Bach Long Vi island district) will have winds gradually increasing to level 6-7, gusting to level 9.
From the evening and night of September 24, the Gulf of Tonkin (including Bach Long Vi, Van Don, Co To, Cat Hai and Hon Dau island) will have winds gradually increasing to level 8-9, waves 2-4m high, the area near the storm's eye will have level 10-12, gusts of level 14, waves 4-6m high, and rough seas.
Storm surge in coastal areas of Quang Ninh - Hai Phong provinces will have storm surge of 0.5-0.8m high. There is a high risk of landslides, sea dikes, and destruction of aquaculture areas and ships anchored along the coast due to strong winds, rising sea levels and big waves.
On land, from the morning of September 25, coastal areas from Quang Ninh to Thanh Hoa will have winds gradually increasing to level 6-7, then increasing to level 8, near the storm center level 9-10, gusting to level 12. The deep inland area northeast of the Ministry has strong winds of level 6, gusting to level 8.
Regarding heavy rain, from the night of September 24 to the end of the night of September 26, in the northern region, Thanh Hoa and Nghe An, there will be heavy to very heavy rain with common rainfall of 100-250mm, locally over 400mm. There is a high risk of flooding in low-lying areas, flash floods on small rivers and streams and landslides on steep slopes.
Due to the influence of a wide storm circulation, it is necessary to be on guard against the risk of thunderstorms, tornadoes and strong gusts of wind both before and during the storm's landfall.
