The storm forecast at 2:00 p.m. on August 10, local time, from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), shows that the depression with a wide range of showers and thunderstorms has been more active since August 7 and is currently located in the mid-tropical Atlantic, between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for the system's gradual development over the next few days as it moves west to west-northwest at a speed of 24-32 km/h through the central tropical Atlantic.
The NHC forecasts that a tropical depression or storm is likely to form early to mid-next week as the system approaches and then move near or across the Lesser Antilles.
The next move of the storm will be to move west-northwest across parts of the Greater Antilles, which may include Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands of the United States.
The NHC offers a 40% chance of a system developing in the next two days and an 80% chance in the next seven days.
If it strengthens into a named system, it could become Tropical Storm Ernesto, the fifth storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Long-range forecast models suggest the system will then turn north into the Atlantic before making landfall in Florida (USA), but all that will happen after more than a week.
"It is too early to determine the impact, if any. Follow the latest storm news updates and continue to monitor reliable weather forecasts," the National Weather Service said in its long-term forecast.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has seen four named storms so far, including two hurricanes. The most recent storm, Hurricane No. 4 Debby, made landfall in Florida's Big Bend on August 5 as a Category 1 storm.
It then weakened into a tropical storm, causing heavy rain as it moved east into the Atlantic, turning north and making a second landfall in South Carolina on August 7.
The number of storms is likely to increase as the peak season reaches from mid-August to October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated the latest storm forecast for the past week, forecasting an extremely severe storm season with 17-24 named storms, of which 8-13 will be hurricanes. Of these, 4-7 will become major hurricanes.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
