During the storm season this year, the Gulf of Mexico has witnessed 4 named storms, including Storm Beryl, the earliest recorded Category 5 storm in the Gulf of Mexico. The latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has reduced the number of named storms from 25 to 24, including the 4 storms that have appeared so far.
According to the latest storm news from NOAA for the remainder of the 2024 storm season, the continued warm ocean temperatures are driving a very harsh Atlantic hurricane season.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center has updated its forecast on August 8 when Storm 4 Debby continued to attack the middle of the Atlantic and the southeastern United States after landing for the second time in the US.
Before the start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA forecasted 17 to 25 named storms to form, with 8-13 becoming hurricanes with winds of at least 120 km/h and 4-7 of those becoming major hurricanes with winds of at least 178 km/h.
The latest forecast has reduced the number of named storms to 17-24, including the 4 storms that have appeared so far this season. The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged.
A typical Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, with 7 becoming hurricanes. Based on ocean and atmospheric conditions, NOAA's forecasters predict a 90% chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.
Within this season, the Atlantic has already witnessed 4 named storms, including Superstorm Beryl - the earliest recorded Category 5 storm in the Atlantic. Beryl made landfall on the Caribbean islands, killing at least 20 people before making landfall for the second time in Texas, US. Beryl's remnants caused deadly flooding in Vermont.
On August 5, Storm 4 Debby made landfall in Florida with a Category 1 storm intensity before weakening into a tropical depression. The storm stalled in the Carolinas, causing flooding and tornadoes. After re-entering the Atlantic, Debby made landfall for the second time on August 8 in South Carolina and its impact is still being felt along Interstate 95.
NOAA's forecasters have identified several factors influencing this year's storm forecast, including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, enhanced West African monsoon winds, reduced tropical Atlantic trade winds, and reduced vertical wind shear.
"Storm Beryl has broken many long-standing records in the Gulf of Mexico, and we are continuing to see signs of a climate-driven active hurricane season" - Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA's hurricane forecast team leader, said. "Sea surface temperatures remain abnormally high, and La Nina is expected to occur during the storm season, so the time to prepare is now".
Also this week, experts at the University of Colorado (US) have slightly lowered their forecast for the number of named storms in the remainder of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. However, the forecast still indicates an above-normal hurricane season.
The official peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is on September 10, when there is a high likelihood of a named storm occurring in the Atlantic. The hurricane season lasts until November 30.
