Scientists warn of unpredictable disasters after flash floods in Nepal

BẠCH DƯƠNG |

Scientists warn that rapid changes in glaciers and permafrost are increasing the risk of flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas.

At least 675 people died and 2,498 people are missing after the ice river collapse caused catastrophic flash floods in the Nepal - China border area on August 26.

Scientists are still investigating the exact cause of the ice river collapse and believe it is too early to determine the extent of climate change's impact on this specific event.

Mr. Simon Cox, principal scientist at the GNS Science Institute (New Zealand), said that the risk of the glacier continuing to collapse cannot be ruled out. He said that the surrounding areas may have become unstable after the incident, while a large amount of soil and rock from the source may continue to fall, increasing the risk of disaster recurrence.

According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), the glacial collapse generated energy equivalent to a 5.2 magnitude earthquake - causing large floods and a series of landslides.

Ice scientist Etienne Berthier of the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) believes that the possibility of similar disasters occurring in other areas cannot be ruled out. Arduous terrain and strong tectonic activity make the Himalayas particularly prone to large-scale incidents.

Scientists say that rockfalls and landslides caused by earthquakes and melting permafrost are more likely to occur frequently than large collapses of a part of the mountain. Climate change is accelerating the melting process, thereby increasing the risk of natural disasters in these areas.

Worryingly, the level of danger is even greater when towns, roads or tourist destinations are located near areas at risk of landslides and rockfalls.

In fact, the Alps recorded record high temperatures this summer, leading to a sharp increase in the number of rockfalls, including fatal ones. Geophysicist Ludovic Ravanel of the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) said that most of these rockfalls may be related to climate change.

In the Swiss town of Randa, where about 400 people live, authorities are wary of the risk of a glacier collapsing in the coming days. After many rockfalls, restricted access areas have been established to ensure safety.

Regarding forecasting capabilities, disasters in Nepal are considered difficult to detect in advance. However, the risk is easier to identify when ice-melting lakes form, because they can suddenly break or drain water massively, causing floods due to ice lake breaks (GLOF).

BẠCH DƯƠNG
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