Newsweek said that Russia's military presence at the port of Tartus (Syria) is declining after the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, causing Moscow to face great strategic losses.
For more than 50 years, Tartus has been Russia's only naval supply and maintenance base in the Mediterranean, allowing Moscow to project power on NATO's southern flank.
However, military analysts saw signs of a Russian withdrawal on December 3, when rebel forces led by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) overwhelmed the Syrian army. Moscow, however, insisted that it was a rehearsal.
On December 8, Ukraine’s General Intelligence Directorate said Russia had withdrawn warships from the port of Tartus, including the patrol ship Admiral Grigorovich and the cargo ship Engineer Trubin. Satellite images released on December 6 also showed other warships such as the Admiral Gorshkov and Yelnya leaving the Mediterranean.
On land, Russia began moving S-300, S-400 and Tor-M1 air defense systems out of Khmeimim air bases.
Pro-Moscow sources have also reported the withdrawal of Russian aircraft from the Khmeimim airbase in Syria’s Latakia province, which the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said would have a “major impact” on Moscow’s military presence.
Experts from ISW said that Russia’s logistics and supply efforts would be disrupted and its military operations would be weakened if it lost its base in Syria. This would be almost impossible to overcome even if the base were moved to neighboring areas such as Libya or Sudan due to the lack of infrastructure and formal agreements.
However, the Russian army may not face the risk of "losing its home" because HTS has declared that it will ensure the security of Russian military bases and Russian diplomatic facilities in Syria.
However, Edward Lucas, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said that the Assad regime has collapsed, so maintaining a military presence in Syria may no longer be in the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
