Analysis from Seasonax - a platform specializing in seasonal data - shows that gold prices tend to move positively in the US mid-term election years.
Looking back at 14 midterm elections in 35 years, gold prices have increased by an average of 12.83% and recorded a "upward" rate of more than 64% of the years. Notably, the crop chart shows the four most bright spells, in which gold has brought a positive profit in more than 80% of cases.
Four favorable periods of gold prices in 2026, the US mid-term election year
Phase 1: Increased pace after January
According to the seasonal chart, gold often has a short increase from mid-January to early February. This is the time when physical demand for gold recovers after the Lunar New Year holiday in Asia, while restructuring cash flow at the beginning of the year often goes to defensive assets. In the midterm election years, the probability of an increase at this stage will exceed 70%.
Phase 2: At the end of the second quarter, the pace increased before the summer
The second half of April to mid-May is the time when gold typically increases in more than 50% of the mid-term election years. The defensive mentality against the stock market cycle is sometimes stagnant, combined with fluctuations in US economic policy, often helping precious metals to be prioritized.
Phase 3: The middle of the year is the clearest time of year
The period from July 4 to September 6 was identified as the "most" "morning", with an average increase of about 7% according to historical data. This is the time when global financial fluctuations often increase, leading to investors' protection needs.
Phase 4: At the end of the year, the increase in the fourth quarter crop
The end of November to the end of December is the period when world gold prices are likely to increase due to year-end material demand, cash flow restructuring portfolios before the holidays and defensive psychology before the new fiscal year. In the mid-term election years, the probability of gold's increase during this period is also over 71%.
UBS Bank believes that demand for gold will increase further, especially during the seasons that have shown a probability of a strong increase in the mid-term election year.
The Swiss bank assessed that the combination of the Fed's interest rate cut, real bond yields, increased US fiscal risks and political fluctuations ahead of the election could continue to make gold a leading defensive asset.
UBS has raised its gold price target in mid-2026 to $4,500/ounce, while opening up a price scenario that could move towards $4,900/ounce if geopolitical or financial shocks appear.
The World Gold Council report shows that net central bank purchases and ETF demand remain strong, causing UBS to believe that investors are still allocating below the standard compared to the current risk context.
However, UBS also noted that the bullish outlook is not without risks. If the Fed appears to be tougher than expected, or some central banks suddenly sell gold to handle domestic pressure, the early morning crop period could narrow or slip the pace.
World gold prices ended the trading week at 4,219 USD/ounce, up 62.91%, equivalent to an increase of 1.51%.
Regarding domestic gold prices, SJC gold bar prices are trading around 153.4 - 154.9 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
The price of 9999 Bao Tin Minh Chau gold rings is trading around 151.5 - 154.5 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
