UBS - one of the largest financial institutions in Switzerland - has just updated its latest forecast on the outlook for gold prices in 2026. The bank raised its mid-year gold price forecast to $4,500/ounce (from $4,200), while pushing its strongest expectation to $4,900/ounce if global financial and political risks escalate.
However, in parallel with positive forecasts, UBS still warned that the deepest down scenario for gold prices could be 3,700 USD/ounce, unchanged from previous analysis.
In the recently released report, UBS highlighted key drivers to continue supporting gold: Expectations of Fed rate cuts, real yield cuts, prolonged geopolitical tensions and unpredictable domestic policy context in the US.
We expect gold demand to continue to increase in 2026, UBS wrote, saying that inflationary and geopolitical uncertainties will remain stable as investors defend against.
UBS cited the latest report from the World Gold Council (WGC) saying that central banks have purchased 634 tons of gold this year and the rate is increasing strongly in the fourth quarter, in line with the forecast of 900-950 tons for 2025.
Gold ETFs recorded 222 tons, while demand for bullion and gold bars exceeded 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter. The Swiss bank assessed this as a signal that basic demand is still very strong.
However, UBS warned that the possibility of some central banks resuming gold sales, along with the risk of the Fed switching to a "hawl" stance, are two factors that could limit price increases next year.
UBS said the recent correction in gold prices was only temporary, stemming from weakening price mobilization and a sharp decline in opening positions in the futures market.
We do not see any fundamental reason for the sell-off, the report said, adding that if geopolitical or market risks escalate, gold could reach $4,700 an ounce.
In the context of rapid demand from both individual investors and central banks, UBS continues to recommend a "buy when the price drops" strategy. The bank believes that the majority of global investors are still allocating too low a proportion of gold and should maintain a mid-single-digit in their portfolios.
UBS experts believe that 2026 will be a period of strong fluctuations in gold, with a wide forecast range from 3,700 USD/ounce ( worst scenario) to 4,900 USD/ounce ( worst scenario).
UBS Global Wealth Management strategist Sagar Khandelwal previously predicted that gold could soon surpass $4,700/ounce in the first quarter of 2026 when real interest rates fall sharply, the USD weakens, US public debt increases and geopolitical instability escalates.
World gold prices closed last week at 4,065.27 USD/ounce.
Regarding domestic gold prices, SJC gold bar prices are trading around 148.9 - 150.4 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
The price of 9999 Bao Tin Minh Chau gold rings is trading around 147.6 - 150.6 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
Gold prices will have big fluctuations in mid-2026
Since the beginning of the year, gold has still increased sharply by 55%, reaching a record of 4,381.22 USD/ounce on October 20. Although the market is in an adjustment phase, in the most positive scenario, some major banks will increase their gold price forecast by $300 in mid-2026, to $4,500/ounce, based on expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates, increasing geopolitical risks and strong demand from central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
