According to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization, there is a 55% chance that the weak La Nina phenomenon will affect weather and climate in the next 3 months.
Although La Nina has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperatures, many areas are still forecast to be warmer than normal.
The latest forecast from the World Meteorological Organization's Global seasonal forecast centers shows that as of mid-November 2025, ocean and atmospheric indexes have recorded conditions at La Nina. There is a 55% chance of exceeding the La Nina threshold in the period from December 2025 to February 2026.
For the period of January-March and February-April 2026, the likelihood of neutral ENSO conditions returning will gradually increase from about 65% to 75%. The possibility of an El Nino phenomenon is very low.
"Seasonal forecasts for El Nino and La Nina are an essential planning tool for climate- sensitiveness sectors such as agriculture, energy, healthcare and transportation. This is also an important component of the WMO's contribution to supporting humanitarian activities. This climate information helps us avoid millions of dollars in economic losses and save countless lives," said WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo.
Large-scale natural climate phenomena such as La Nina and El Nino are occurring in the context of climate change increasing global temperatures in the long term, aggravating extreme weather and climate phenomena as well as affecting seasonal rainfall and temperatures.
The latest WMO update also said that from December 2025 to February 2026, temperatures are expected to be above normal in most of the Northern Hemisphere and most of the Southern Hemisphere. The forecast for rainfall is similar to the conditions often seen in the weak La Nina phenomenon.
