El Nino has strengthened in the past month and is very likely to enter the group of the strongest El Nino waves in history when it peaks around October to December, US weather forecasters said.
El Nino increases surface temperatures in the middle and eastern equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean, leading to weather changes around the world, including wind, atmospheric pressure and rain, while pushing global temperatures up.
In the latest El Nino update, the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said that there is a 81% chance of a "very strong" El Nino phenomenon from October to December. And then, El Nino may be in the strongest group since 1950.
Very strong" is defined as a temperature 2.0 degrees Celsius or higher than a certain index. The US Climate Prediction Center also forecasts a 97% chance that El Nino will last until early spring 2027.
According to AFP, this further reinforces the forecast of El Nino expert Tim Stockdale of the European Center for Medium-term Weather Forecasting that it would be "a very, very big surprise" if El Nino this time does not break the record.
El Nino often causes chain reactions globally, including dry and drought conditions in Australia, more humid winters in East Africa and southern America.
Climate scientist Isla Simpson at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research shared: "There is quite a lot of evidence from our models showing that global warming leads to increased El Nino variability, so the public will witness stronger El Nino waves and even stronger La Nina waves.
Ms. Isla Simpson pointed out that in the US, El Nino helps solve drought in some areas, including California, but causes drought in other areas.
Meanwhile, the impact of El Nino in Europe is smaller and less certain. There is evidence that El Nino may increase the risk of cold in late winter in Northern Europe.
According to the CPC, the sea surface temperature is currently higher than the average of 1.2 degrees Celsius in an area in the equatorial Pacific called the Nino zone 3. 4. Combined with water under the sea surface heating up, changes in wind and pressure patterns, the ocean-atmospheric system reflects increased El Nino.
El Nino usually peaks from November to February, but sudden temperature increases often occur later. Combined with climate change, the most recent El Nino contributed to making 2023 the 2nd hottest year in history and 2024 the record hottest year.
