Forecast of how much gold prices may increase amid the tariff war

Song Minh |

Gold prices have set a record above $3,100/ounce, an unprecedented level in history, but are likely to increase further amid the global tariff war.

Reuters reported that the world gold price has skyrocketed to a record of over 3,100 USD/ounce, entering an "unidescribed land" as investors rush to seek shelter from the risk of US tariffs.

On March 31, spot gold prices hit an all-time high of $3,128.06/ounce. Although gold prices fell slightly on April 1 due to profit-taking, prices still fluctuated around record levels as investors prepared to deal with the countervailing tax measures that US President Donald Trump was expected to announce today (April 2).

On the morning of February 2, Vietnam time, the world gold price immediately adjusted down slightly to 3,114 USD/ounce.

Uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's tariff policies has made gold a top risk-off asset, along with other strong influencing factors such as strong demand from central banks; expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates; geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Europe; strong cash flow into gold ETFs.

In 2025 alone, gold has set 19 new price records, 7 of which surpassed the $3,000 threshold. Thanks to the above factors, gold prices have increased by 18% since the beginning of the year, after increasing by 27% in 2024.

According to Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany, gold prices are supported by geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns and strong demand for short-term investment. In the current economic context, especially uncertainty about the trade war and central banking policies, this trend is expected to continue in the short term.

US President Donald Trump is expected to announce countervailing tax measures against countries with trade surpluses with the US on April 2, effective immediately, while auto tariffs will take effect from April 3.

Mr. Trump's recent comments on geopolitical and trade issues have increased uncertainty, causing gold demand to continue to escalate.

Capital Economics forecasts gold prices to surpass $3,300/ounce by the end of 2025, up 6% from current levels, driven by high demand from governments and investors.

Song Minh
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