On January 3, 2026, the US launched a large-scale military attack on Venezuela and arrested President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. Venezuela became a new hotspot in world politics and world security politics.
It is predicted that the general trend of the world situation and international relations in 2026 is that war and military conflict will continue to increase. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to continue to be persistent and not end, because both Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to end this conflict with a military victory, while a peaceful political solution is still beyond the reach of the parties involved.
The EU and NATO continue to steadfastly support Ukraine, while Mr. Trump cannot give up his diplomatic mediator role, because the early end of the conflict is considered a key factor to create an advantage for the Republican Party in the midterm parliamentary elections in the US this fall. This conflict continues to dominate relations between the US, EU, Russia and China.
The war in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas, along with the conflicts between Israel and some Islamic armed forces in the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf, may temporarily subside in intensity, but the risk of re-emergence is still present, because Mr. Trump's peace plan for Gaza has not been fully implemented according to the roadmap set out. This situation is similar to the discord between the US, Israel and Iran. These hotspots, along with the wars taking place elsewhere, continue to cover the dark gray color of the world picture in 2026.
Mr. Trump's ruling policy continues to create many fluctuations in the US and around the world in 2026, with moves being implemented right from the early days of the year. The closer to the midterm congressional election, the clearer the need for Mr. Trump to achieve specific domestic and foreign results becomes.
In that context, policies on immigration, drug crime prevention, and trade protection tariffs are likely to be tightened, while the role and military presence of the US in foreign affairs are also strengthened. These factors continue to make the world's stable prospects in 2026 face many challenges.
Mr. Trump's moves in the US election year, along with the developments of the conflict in Ukraine, continue to dominate the relationship between major partners in 2026. US-EU relations tend to fluctuate in a direction contrary to Russia-China relations: While the US and EU are still facing the risk of deeper cracks, relations between Russia and China are forecast to continue to be strengthened. Mr. Trump is likely to maintain contact channels with Russia and China, while the EU continues to be tough on Russia and is not ready to significantly improve relations with China. This situation creates relatively clearer advantages for Russia and China compared to the US and EU.
2026 will be a year for countries and economies to strongly adapt to more adverse fluctuations than before of the political security, foreign affairs and foreign economic environment. The world economy and trade are expected to grow more stably. The global supply chain is also less disrupted. 2026 is expected to be a year of victory for artificial intelligence, digital technology and green technology on a global scale. It is likely that 2026 will be a pivotal year for world politics and economy to transition to a new era.
