According to AFP on September 21 (local time), climatist Zeke Hausfather at Berkeley Earth said that the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific region is currently 3.07°C higher than the average, equal to the level recorded during El Nino 2015-2016.
Mr. Hausfather predicts September may set a record for higher than average temperatures, unless abnormalities appear in the last days of the month.
His data was published on the Climate Brink monitoring board, based on sea surface temperature data from satellites and observation floats of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This index measures temperatures in the Nino 3.4 area higher than the 30-year average.
However, NOAA currently uses another method, the Relative Marine Nino Index (RONI), which compares the warming level at Nino 3.4 with the entire tropics. According to RONI, El Nino is currently not breaking records, although it is predicted to exceed this level.
El Nino is a period when seawater temperatures in the tropical Pacific region rise higher than normal. When monsoons weaken, warm water accumulates in the western Pacific and moves eastward, changing the weather in many regions of the world. Some places may be hotter and drier, while others are cooler and rainier.
Human-induced climate change may amplify the impact of El Nino. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, making El Nino-related rains more extreme, while making the land drier and drought more severe.
In Central America, drought has killed animals and crops, and pushed the Panama Canal into a state of water shortage.
Previously, Panama reduced the number of ships passing through the Panama Canal from 36 to 32 per day from September 4 to save water. According to the draft budget, the number of transits is expected to continue to decrease to an average of 29.5 per day from October. About 5% of global trade passes through this waterway route, which requires a large amount of water to operate the pier system.
In Indonesia, El Nino is believed to contribute to drought, increasing forest fires on the vast archipelago.
