A new scientific study published in arXiv - an online repository of scientific works - warned that just a lack of control in less than 3 days, a strong enough solar storm could trigger the domino effect to destroy the entire satellite network around the Earth.
According to the research team led by Sarah Thiele (University of Washington), low-altitude Earth Orbiter (LEO) is currently the home of about 14,000 satellites, more than 3 times the number of about 4,000 in 2018.
The explosion has been driven largely by commercial satellites, especially the Starlink of technology billionaire Elon Musk, in addition to many other systems serving the Internet, Earth observation and positioning.
Under normal conditions, satellite operators must continuously adjust their trajectories to avoid collisions between thousands of objects traveling at a speed of tens of thousands of kilometers per hour. But things could collapse very quickly if the Sun storm paralyzed the control system.
Research shows that, compared to 2018 - when operators had up to 121 days to block the worst case scenario - now, the response time can be shortened to just 2.8 to 3 days. The reason is that the density of satellites is much higher, causing the probability of collisions to increase multiplied by the number.
The Earth is entering the extreme stage of the solar cycle, as magnetic storms and solar Meritorious Vehicle (CME) explosions occur more frequently. These storms could also crash into communication and guidance systems, leaving satellites dead and deaf.
According to new calculations, if the control is completely lost, after only 2.8 days, a disastrous collision could occur, creating countless pieces of high-speed debris. These debris continue to hit other satellites, triggering a chain reaction called Kessler syndrome - a scenario where the Orbital space becomes an uncontrollable mineral beach.
The consequences did not stop at the loss of satellites. Systemes that depend on space such as GPS, telecommunications, satellite Internet, weather forecasting, and climate observation can be seriously disrupted.
In the worst case scenario, a part of space around Earth could not be reached for decades, paralyzing the ability to launch new satellites and hindering human space exploration.
Notably, research shows that even a short period of uncontrol has great potential risks. If the control system is interrupted for only 24 hours, the probability of activating the chain reaction is still up to 30%.
History has recorded similar warnings. The Carrington event in 1859, the strongest solar storm ever known, paralyzed the telegram system in Europe and North America. At that time, the world was not as dependent on technology as it is today.
Scientists say that if a storm of the same intensity as Carrington occurs in the modern era, it could cause widespread power outages at the continental level, requiring weeks or more to recover - and with the current dense satellite network, the risk is far beyond what humanity has faced.
