The plan to restore the power system of the new Ukrainian government is considered still not enough to meet the electricity demand in winter, even if it is implemented on schedule and does not cause further damage to energy infrastructure.
According to calculations by TASS based on data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy on July 26, the available capacity of this country's electricity system currently only reaches about 11 - 12GW, while winter demand is estimated at 18 - 19GW.
The new government of Ukraine aims to restore a maximum of 6GW of power generation capacity. However, even after completing the entire plan, the total capacity of the system will only reach about 17 - 18 GW, still lower than the demand in the event of harsh winter weather.
The plan to restore power generation facilities is expected to last until the end of 2026. Meanwhile, electricity demand will increase sharply from the beginning of the heating season, expected to start no later than October.
Previously, Ukraine set a target to restore 4GW of power generation capacity for the whole year, including 2GW in the first half of the year and 2GW in the second half of the year. However, the new government has raised the restoration target in the last six months of 2026 to 3 times, but has not announced specific solutions to achieve this goal.
In addition to restoring large-scale power plants, Ukraine is also promoting the development of a decentralized power generation network to improve the resilience of the energy system.
However, the implementation progress is still quite slow. On average, only about 100MW of new capacity is put into operation each month. At the current rate, which is significantly dependent on equipment supply from the European Union (EU), Ukraine is expected to only be able to add about 0.6GW of power generation capacity in the second half of the year.
In the context of energy infrastructure continuing to be under pressure and winter approaching, Ukraine's ability to ensure electricity supply is still assessed to face many challenges.
