The risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah

Ngọc Vân |

The latest fighting between Israel and Hezbollah on August 25 increased concerns about escalation in the region.

Al Jaazera reported that Hezbollah and Israeli forces exchanged fierce artillery fire across the Lebanon -Israel border, marking a clear escalation of the tit-for-tat fighting that the two sides have been carrying out since October 7, 2023.

What happened?

Israel attacked southern Lebanon in the early morning of August 25, saying it was a preemptive strike against Hezbollah rocket launchers preparing to attack Israel.

Israeli Army Radio said the Israeli army discovered that Hezbollah would launch hundreds of missiles toward central Israel at 5 a.m., so it attacked half an hour earlier with 100 aircraft.

The Hezbollah group said it launched an attack on northern Israel with missiles and drones in retaliation for the assassination of commander Fuad Shukr last month.

Casualties

Three people were killed in Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon - CNN quoted a statement from the Lebanese Ministry of Health.

The full extent of the damage from the massive firefight between Israel and Hezbollah is still unclear, but two people were killed in the village of At Tiri in Nabatiyeh, another person was killed after an Israeli attack on a car in Nabatiyeh. Khiyam town.

The Amal Movement, a Shia group allied with Hezbollah, said one of its fighters was killed “while performing national and jihadist duty in defense of Lebanon and the south.”

Location attacked?

Hezbollah said its attack targeted 11 Israeli military facilities, including the Meron base and 4 locations in the Golan Heights.

Israel claims to have hit thousands of Hezbollah rocket launchers.

Israeli aircraft intercepted hostile aircraft launched from Lebanon. Photo: AFP
Israeli aircraft intercepted hostile aircraft launched from Lebanon. Photo: AFP

What is happening now?

The situation appears to have calmed down, at least for a moment.

Hezbollah rejected Israel's claim of attacking its missile launch sites, and affirmed that it had successfully completed the "first phase" of a retaliatory attack against Israel.

Israel issued security directives to the north, but on the other hand, things seemed calmer when Ben Gurion airport reopened after closing for a few hours.

Why today?

Hezbollah announced that it chose August 25 to attack because this is the Arbaeen holiday - an important annual event commemorating Imam Hussein, grandson of the Prophet Mohammed and son of Imam Ali. Arbaeen marks the 40th day of mourning for Imam Hussein, who was murdered in 680 AD on the plains of Karbala.

Risk of war between Hezbollah and Israel?

According to Sami Nader, Director of the Levant Strategy Institute, this “has the potential to drag the entire region into a full-scale war,” but Hezbollah and Israel “are trying to avoid” that.

Reuters news agency quoted Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz as saying: "Israel does not seek a comprehensive war but will act according to developments on the ground."

What happens next?

It is unclear what will happen next. Analyst Sami Nader told Al Jazeera that these events signaled a “major escalation in scope and intensity.”

However, the language used by Israel focuses on “self-defense” and protecting Israelis from attacks, which seems to indicate that Israel will not pursue escalation at this time.

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