Total global public debt is expected to exceed the scale of the entire world economy in the next 5 years - a "concerning reality" that Ms. Kristalina Georgieva - General Director of the IMF - emphasized in a speech broadcast on the official YouTube channel of this organization.
According to Georgieva, the rapid increase in public debt stems from prolonged budget deficits, the legacy of the pandemic and rising interest costs in both developed and emerging economies.
The IMF estimates that global public debt will exceed 100% of GDP by 2029, meaning the debt scale of governments, businesses and households will be greater than the total value of global output.
She warned that this trend could increase borrowing costs, push interest rates up, narrow spending capacity and weaken the response capacity of governments to economic shocks.
The resilience of the global economy has not been fully tested and there are worrying signs that the test is approaching, she said.
The IMF's warning comes as US federal debt surges to a record $37 trillion, or about 125% of GDP. Interest rates have now become one of the largest spending by the US government, surpassing defense spending.
The Trump administration has defended this borrowing policy as a necessary measure to boost growth and maintain domestic programs, while critics are concerned about the risk of a fiscal crisis.
The IMF has previously warned that out-of-control spending could push up global borrowing costs and cause uncertainty for emerging markets. In her speech, Georgieva also mentioned other risk signals: Gold prices hit a record $4,000/ounce, US stock prices escalated reminiscent of the dotcom bubble 25 years ago, and the unclear impact of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
According to the July 2025 outlook Report, the IMF forecasts global growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 - slightly higher than the previous estimate. However, the organization warned that economic recovery could be hampered by fiscal pressures, trade manh and inflated asset prices if governments do not promptly curb deficits and strengthen financial reserves. Georgieva said the new IMF update will be released next week.
