"The White House Key" is currently leaning towards Vice President Kamala Harris in the hypothetical 2024 showdown with former President Donald Trump, but the final prediction for the 2024 U.S. presidential election has yet to be made.
Fox News reported that Allan Lichtman - an election forecaster who has accurately predicted almost every presidential election since 1984 - has developed a formula to predict the upcoming presidential election, and in most cases, this formula has been correct.
Lichtman's "The White House Key" includes 13 "true" or "false" questions that he believes will strongly indicate who will win the vote on November 5.
In each question with two candidates; if "true," they will be awarded 1 "key," and if "false," their opponent will receive the point. Then, if a party's candidate receives 6 or more keys, they will be the predicted winner.
At the start of the cycle, the Democrats were automatically awarded 1 "key" for the incumbent term of President Joe Biden - but the ballot has seen significant changes since then.
The "keys" include: Party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, opponent charisma.
According to Lichtman's prediction, the Democratic Party - with Harris as a potential candidate - currently holds 6 out of 13 keys. These include primary election, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no opponent charisma.
The Republican Party holds 3 keys: winning the majority in the House in the 2022 midterm elections, the current incumbent not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent lacking charisma.
There are still 4 keys yet to be awarded.
The remaining keys include the third-party factor, which Lichtman notes is significant because Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is in the race.
The keys still open are "no social unrest," as well as "foreign/military failure" and "foreign/military success."
If the Democrats lose 3 more keys, they will be the predicted "loser," according to historian Allan Lichtman's formula.
The final prediction has yet to be made for the 2024 race, but Lichtman told News Nation that he believes "a lot of bad things would have to happen for Harris to lose."
Lichtman accurately predicted Donald Trump's victory in 2016 and Joe Biden's in 2020.
The historian will make his final prediction for the 2024 U.S. presidential election after the Democratic Party officially selects its candidate at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in August.
