On August 22, the court will issue a verdict on Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra's 2015 media interview for committing a crime while in the army - a serious crime in Thailand, with a prison sentence of up to 15 years for each count.
18 days later, another court will rule on Mr. Thaksin being held in the hospital's VIP area, instead of the prison, in 2023. Thaksin was sentenced to prison for abusing his power and conflict of interest. If the verdict shows that Mr. Thaksin's detention in the hospital's VIP area is not in accordance with regulations, he could be considered unfulfilled and at risk of returning to prison.
At the same time, the court is also trying Ms. Paetongtarn Shinawatra on charges of violating ethics in a June phone call with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen. Ms. Paetongtarn is being suspended from her position as Thai Prime Minister and the court will issue a verdict on August 29.
If the disadvantage is ruled against Ms. Paetongtarn, 39, and Mr. Thaksin, 76, it is likely to lead to an earlier election than expected in Thailand and in this election the Pheu Thai Party is unlikely to be in the best state to participate in the election.
The decisions could affect the ability of members of the Shinawatra family to return to politics, which could lead to early elections and have long-term consequences for Thailand's economy.
"A new election will certainly take place in mid-2026 or possibly sooner. The possibility of Pheu Thai regaining the popular vote in the next election is very low," said law professor Prinya Thaewanarumitkul of Thammasat University.
The coalition government of Paetongtarn Shinawatra is suspended pending a ruling on August 29 by the Constitutional Court.
Ms. Paetongtarn's predecessor, Mr. Srettha Thavisin, was appointed by the Constitutional Court a year ago. If Ms. Paetongtarn also suffers the same fate, or resigns, the Thai National Assembly will have to choose a new prime minister from the list of candidates before the 2023 election.
Ms. Paetongtarn's Pheu Thai Party has only 1 candidate left - former Justice Minister Chaikasem Nitisiri. But the 76-year-old will need help from Mr. Thaksin or the Pheu Thai Party to gather support from a very fragile majority alliance.
Other candidates include former Home Secretary Anutin Charnvirakul, who left the ruling coalition in June, and former Prime Minister prayuth Chan-ocha, who has left politics and is now a royal adviser.
The People's Party, the current main opposition party, the largest party in the Thai parliament, has suggested the possibility of supporting Mr. Anutin if he agrees to dissolve parliament this year and seek constitutional reform.
