August 4 is the deadline for the Thai Constitutional Court to allow Ms. Paetongtarn Shinawatra to file an appeal in response to allegations related to her phone call with President of the Cambodian Senate Hun Sen.
After Ms. Paetongtarn Shinawatra submitted her defense, the Thai Constitutional Court will send this document to the 36 Senators who submitted the petition. These senators will have 15 days to respond.
The Constitutional Court of Thailand will then send the Senators' responses to Ms. Paetongtarn. Ms. Paetongtarn will have more time to express her opinions on the contents of this document.
Next, the Thai Constitutional Court needs to wait 15 days before making a verdict.
The entire process is expected to lead to the verdict on Ms. Paetongtarn's fate in September.
The political context of Thailand is still uncertain, in which Ms. Paetongtarn's political future is similar.
Thai media said that the current developments are in line with the comments of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in an interview on July 9, 2025. Mr. Thaksin has outlined 3 political scenarios that he believes will help prevent the deadlock in Thailand.
Scenario one: If the verdict is assessed as positive, Ms. Paetongtarn will keep her position as Prime Minister. The government will continue to run the country despite many major challenges.
Second scenario: If the verdict is "negative", the court decides that Ms. Paetongtarn must resign as Prime Minister of Thailand, which will have significant political turmoil, leading to the process of selecting a new prime minister.
Third scenario: Dissolve the National Assembly. In this scenario, the government will continue to hold power for at least 60 days, according to the provisions of law.
In addition to these scenarios, Thai media believes that there is still a possibility of behind-the-scenes changes and "secret cards" being released.
In addition, the strategic planning of key advisors of the Pheu Thai Party, especially the Chief of Staff of the Thai Prime Minister Prommin Lertsuridej, has also received special attention.
Prommin has recently denied rumors that Paetongtarn Shinawatra could resign as prime minister before the court's verdict. The confirmation of the information, Ms. Paetongtarn Shinawatra's resignation was "untrue" reinforcing the view that the early resignation option may not be the final solution.
In the case of Ms. Paetongtarn's phone call with Mr. Hun Sen, the National Anti-Corruption Commission of Thailand (NACC) is still investigating. Therefore, early resignation does not mean that Ms. Paetongtarn Shinawatra escaped the phone leak with Mr. Hun Sen.
Thailand - Cambodia border issues may have a further negative impact on the incumbent government. The fact that only Mr. Phumtham Wechayachai is Acting Prime Minister will create a power vacuum and make the government more unstable.
Another important development that needs to be monitored is the criminal case under Article 112 of the Penal Code (Children's Law), in which Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra is a defendant. The case originated from an interview he gave to a foreign media outlet in South Korea in 2015. The court is scheduled to issue a verdict on August 22.
In addition, Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra is also facing legal battles related to moving him from prison to the 14th floor of the Police General Hospital for health reasons. The Thai Supreme Court held a final hearing with witnesses on July 30 and the verdict was expected to be made in mid-or-late August.
