At a press conference in Florida on March 9, President Trump said the military campaign is progressing faster than planned. Although not confirming that the war will end this week, he pledged efforts to cool down fuel prices, which have skyrocketed due to geopolitical fluctuations.
He also warned that he would increase airstrikes to a more intense level if Tehran continued to take actions that disrupt world crude oil supplies.
Statements from the White House show a tendency to be ready to end the conflict to reduce domestic economic pressure ahead of the November election. Mr. Trump declared that the US-Israel coalition destroyed more than 5,000 targets, weakening Iran's missile capability by 90% and drone deployment capability by 83%.
He assessed that US military targets are basically completed, although still leaving open the possibility of attacking more power infrastructure if the enemy does not surrender decisively.
Reacting to these signals, the financial market has had positive changes when the S&P 500 index increased by 1%. US crude oil futures fell below the threshold of 90 USD/barrel after reaching 119 USD at the beginning of the trading session. The G7 group also announced its readiness to release strategic oil reserves to support supply, although a final agreement on the timing of implementation has not yet been reached.
However, the actual situation in the Strait of Hormuz is still extremely tense as this maritime route is almost blockaded. Major exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iraq have had to cut production due to security risks for oil tankers.
Mr. Trump said he is considering letting the US Navy escort oil tankers or directly control this key area to ensure that energy flow is not squeezed.
Politically, Iran has just elected Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader after the death of his father in airstrikes at the end of February. Analysts believe that this new leader has a tough stance and will maintain a military presence in the region, making the prospect of sustainable peace still a difficult problem.
Currently, the US is still considering deploying special forces to seize Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles but affirms that there are no plans to deploy infantry to the mainland in the near future.
