On March 23, US President Donald Trump declared that the Strait of Hormuz could "open very soon" if diplomatic contacts with Iran develop positively. However, the Iranian Foreign Ministry immediately rejected it, affirming that there would be no negotiations, either directly or through intermediaries.
Mr. Trump's statement was made in the context of escalating conflict since the end of February, when the US and Israel launched the first attack on Iran.
Since February 28, Tehran has tightened control over the Strait of Hormuz - the world's most important oil transport route - causing most ships to stop or change direction.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Mr. Trump believes that "great military achievements" of Israel and the US can be used to achieve war goals through an agreement. However, Mr. Netanyahu emphasized that Israel continues to carry out airstrikes on Iran and Lebanon.
Last weekend, Mr. Trump continued to increase pressure by threatening to attack Iranian energy facilities if Tehran does not lift the warning to ships passing through Hormuz. In response, Iran announced a list of power plants and energy facilities in the Gulf region that they may target.
In the latest developments, Mr. Trump announced that he had canceled plans to attack Iranian energy facilities after "effective exchanges" with Tehran. However, the Iranian side continues to completely deny this information.
Notably, the US leader also mentioned the possibility of "a very serious form of regime change" in Iran, and also caused controversy when saying that the Hoarmuz Strait in the future could be "commonly controlled" between him and the "next Supreme Leader". Meanwhile, Iran has announced the successor to the position of Supreme Leader, Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei.
Conflicting statements immediately strongly impacted the market. World crude oil prices fell by 10%, while European stock markets fluctuated violently before technical recovery.
From a military perspective, the US Central Command said it has conducted more than 9,000 combat flights since the conflict broke out, attacking more than 9,000 targets in Iran. The targets include more than 140 naval ships, along with many missile production facilities, drones and intelligence locations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Whether Hormuz can be "unlocked" or not now depends on contradictory diplomatic developments. While the US is signaling to cool down, Iran affirms that there is no dialogue channel - a dangerous gap that could continue to push the region into a new spiral of instability.
