The latest storm news on the evening of July 4th from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that Super Typhoon Ba Vi is 2,845km east of Visayas, Philippines. The storm is currently having maximum sustained winds of 205 km/h, gusts up to 250km/h. The storm is moving west at a speed of 10km/h.
Meanwhile, the latest storm news from the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) said that Super Typhoon Ba Vi is moving west at a speed of 13 km/h, with winds up to 270 km/h.
Ba Vi has rapidly upgraded to a strong typhoon, all major forecasting agencies rank this typhoon at the highest level on the scale. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) classifies Ba Vi as a severe typhoon, while JTWC classifies it as a super typhoon level 5 and PAGASA identifies Ba Vi as a super typhoon.
JMA predicts that with a central pressure of 920hPa, Super Typhoon Ba Vi will become the 2nd strongest storm in the western Pacific region in 2026, only after Super Typhoon Sinlaku.
Super typhoon Ba Vi is also the 3rd strongest typhoon in the region to form in July in the 21st century. Ba Vi is also ranked 6th among the strongest typhoons in July since data began recording in 1951, on the same ranking as 6 other typhoons.
The weather situation across Guam and the Mariana Islands is expected to gradually worsen starting from July 5 when the storm approaches. The time super typhoon Ba Vi is closest to the mainland is forecast to be in the morning of July 6.
JTWC storm forecasters predict that the maximum wind speed of Super Typhoon Ba Vi could reach 280 km/h.
With the special environmental conditions that Ba Vi will move through and the rapid intensification of the storm in the past 2 days, a higher intensity than forecast is entirely possible. In addition, Ba Vi is likely to undergo another rapid intensification to reach winds of at least 280 km/h when passing through the Mariana Islands.
There are currently no significant changes in the forecast path of Super Typhoon Ba Vi, although there is a slight shift to the north at the end of the forecast time. It is expected that the latest super typhoon in the 2026 storm season will continue to move west in the next 12 hours before gradually changing direction to the northwest, towards the Mariana Islands.
The latest path forecast from JMA shows that the center of Typhoon Ba Vi is expected to pass between Tinian and Rota islands in the Mariana Islands on the morning of July 6 at an intensity equivalent to a Category 5 super typhoon in the US scale.
According to Taiwan's (China) weather forecasting agency CWA, Super Typhoon Ba Vi will continue to strengthen in the coming days. Independent meteorologist Wu Der-rong said that Ba Vi is expected to enter the southeast sea area of the Ryukyu Islands at around 2 am on July 8. After that, it is forecast that the storm will gradually change direction to the northwest when it enters the sea off the east coast of Taiwan (China) from July 9, but the level of threat to this island is still uncertain.
Super typhoon Ba Vi may also enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at super typhoon intensity on the PAGASA intensity scale in the early morning of July 8. When entering PAR, Ba Vi will be named locally Inday. Up to this point, the possibility of the typhoon making landfall in the Philippines is still very low.
