The latest storm news in the evening of July 2nd said that Typhoon Ba Vi (Japan's storm No. 9) is currently 1.545km east of Andersen Air Force Base and has moved northwest at a speed of 24 km/h in the past 6 hours. The storm is expected to turn west in the next 60 hours.
The storm's moving speed is expected to slow down in the next 24 to 60 hours due to the influence of a low pressure trough. After 60 hours, Ba Vi will return northwest as it approaches the Northern Mariana Islands.
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Ba Vi may become a strong typhoon within the next 48 hours and may reach very strong typhoon level within 72 hours.
By the end of the 5-day forecast period, JMA forecasts sustained winds for 10 minutes to reach about 175 km/h, this number is somewhat cautious compared to forecasts from other agencies, such as the Taiwan (China) Meteorological Administration CWA and the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).
Meanwhile, the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecasts that Typhoon Ba Vi will reach super typhoon level 5 on July 5. It is forecast that the rapid intensification process of Typhoon Ba Vi will begin within the next 24 hours when the southeast winds weaken.
In the next 5 days, Typhoon Ba Vi is expected to move northwest towards the Mariana Islands. Outside the forecast time, there is still a high possibility that the typhoon will change direction, with the expected path possibly extending from northern Philippines to southern Japan.
The latest forecast models have shifted slightly southward, which could increase the potential impact on Taiwan (China) and northern Philippines. Storm forecasting experts note that Ba Vi could become the strongest storm ever to affect the Mariana Islands region, including Guam.
Most weather models show that the typhoon may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on July 7 or July 8 at super typhoon intensity. Although current forecasts show that the possibility of Typhoon Ba Vi making landfall in the Philippines is low, any further southward shift in the typhoon's path could cause significant impacts on Northern Luzon by the end of next week. The typhoon may also strengthen the southwest monsoon, causing heavy rain in the western areas of the Philippines in the middle of next week. If Typhoon Ba Vi enters the PAR area of Responsibility, the typhoon's name is Inday.
Some forecast models show the path of Typhoon Ba Vi towards Taiwan (China) next week, with the ability to maintain super typhoon intensity. It is also possible that Ba Vi will become one of the strongest tropical storms ever to make landfall on this island. Heavy rain and strong gusts of wind may begin to affect the island from July 9.
The Ryukyu Islands, especially the Sakishima and Okinawa Islands, are likely to be affected by Typhoon Ba Vi, with strong typhoon intensity starting from July 9 and lasting until the end of the week.
Due to the forecast that the storm's path is still uncertain, it is still too early to determine when and where storm Ba Vi will directly affect China. Areas likely to be affected are currently stretching from Fujian and Zhejiang to Jiangsu and Shanghai.
