The Sea Horse, expected to dock in early March, is transporting a very necessary amount of fuel for Cuba, according to data from maritime analysis company Kpler.
Cuba is currently severely short of fuel for cooking, transportation and power generation, to the point of struggling to maintain domestic electricity supply.
Electricity supply has plummeted since the beginning of this year. Satellite images show that nighttime lighting in Cuba has decreased by 50%.
Pressure on Havana has increased since the end of last year, when US forces seized a Venezuelan crude oil tanker on its way to Cuba. After that, Washington asked the interim government in Venezuela to stop exporting oil to the Caribbean island nation.
President Donald Trump also threatened to impose tariffs on any country that supplies fuel to Cuba, forcing Mexico, one of the stable suppliers, to cut shipments.
Cuba, a country with limited domestic oil production, heavily relies on imports of fuel or crude oil to operate oil refineries.
Oil expert Matt Smith of Kpler said that the Sea Horse ship received fuel through a transshipment between 2 ships off Cyprus and is likely carrying nearly 200,000 barrels of Russian gasoline. Gasoil refers to fuels similar to diesel, commonly used in transportation and power generation.
It is not yet clear whether Sea Horse can overcome the US blockade. To date, Washington has seized at least 9 ships suspected of participating in transporting sanctioned oil.
Russia is also facing increasingly strong international sanctions related to the 4-year conflict in Ukraine. The US and European countries have stepped up efforts to seize oil tankers belonging to the "dark fleet", which helps maintain sanctioned oil flows.
The US military presence in the Caribbean region has disrupted most of the oil supply to Cuba. Earlier this month, the oil tanker Ocean Mariner, which regularly transports fuel to Cuba, changed direction and is now signaling the Bahamas as the final destination. This ship carries about 30,000 barrels of diesel oil, loaded at Barranquilla port in Colombia.
Senior analyst Rohit Rathod of Vortexa said that the amount of oil Cuba received in December 2025 may only be enough for a few more weeks. "I think by the end of March, they will run out of fuel," he said.
