When you have pipelines transporting huge volumes of oil flowing through the entire system, if for any reason that pipeline is closed because it cannot continue to pump oil into containers or oil tankers (due to blockade) - then what will happen is that the pipeline will explode from inside, both mechanically and underground" - US President Donald Trump said on April 26.
Mr. Trump added: "That is what can happen when the system suddenly explodes. And they only have about 3 days before that situation occurs. Once it explodes, no matter what, it will not be possible to restore the original state.
Experts warn that Iran may be forced to close oil fields as early as April 29 due to the US naval blockade, causing a long-term risk of damage to crude oil exploitation activities.
The reason is that Tehran is gradually running out of oil storage after having to transfer oil into land-based tanks, which have limited capacity, in the context of exports being stalled.
Both the Serious Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and fuel analysis company Energy Aspects based in the UK estimate that Iran's storage space will be full next week.
Once the tanks are full, Iran will have to close its oil fields, posing a long-term risk to the fields," said Annika Ganzeveld, Middle East portfolio manager of the AEI's Serious Threats Project.
The sudden and prolonged suspension of operations at oil production facilities risks permanent damage to oil storage layers, and at the same time makes restarting operations much more difficult and difficult to reach the pre-existing output level.
Such a situation would be a heavy blow to Iran's economy.
However, that also has the potential to push global fuel prices to soar, in the context that the world market has been shaken by a shortage of 12 million barrels of oil per day due to conflict.
Analysts say Iran may seek further production cuts in the remainder of the month or deploy oil tankers anchored at ports as temporary storage facilities to delay production cuts.
This will only be a short-term solution for a country that is producing about 2 million barrels of oil per day.
