This change in the tactical balance is considered the most important change in the Russia-Ukraine conflict over the past year, more important than the move towards territory.
During nearly four years of conflict, Ukraine has always maintained a clear advantage in UAVs on the ground, taking advantage of creative tactics and technology to compensate for the less artillery and manpower forces.
However, this fall, Russia has gained an advantage for the first time in the tactical UAV race. Russia deploys much larger numbers of drones than Ukraine at hot spots on the ground, while improving tactics, making it difficult for Ukraine to supply its defense forces.
This trend is expected to be at a disadvantage for Ukraine in its ability to maintain its defense in 2026 if it does not find a new way to respond.
Not only are communication routes destroyed; but even the concept of a safe zone behind is fading away, Valeriy Zaluzhniy, former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian army, currently the Ambassador to the UK, warned in an analysis published in Mirror of the Week.
He pointed out that Russia has not been able to make a breakthrough yet. However, the worrying thing is that the Ukrainian army could be exhausted if it cannot regain the initiative in the fight against high-tech UAVs.
Russia has increased the use of small UAVs during the conflict, used for reconnaissance, artillery guidance and attack on Ukrainian forces. Russia also simulates how Ukraine deploys FPV UAVs, a type of unmanned aerial vehicle, from a first-person perspective.
Over the past two years, FPV has helped Ukraine make up for the shortage of manpower, which has significantly slowed down Russia's advance.
The turning point appeared in 2024, after Ukraine launched an attack on Russia's Kursk province. The new Rubicon unit, which brings together many of Russia's best UAV pilots, focused on hitting Ukrainian logistics in Kursk.
Rubicon later expanded, successfully bringing the strategy in Kursk to the eastern front of Ukraine, and trained other Russian UAVs.
According to Ukrainian officers, Rubicon focuses on medium-range targets, mainly at a distance of 20km or further, bypassing infantry and hitting logistics directly.
Currently, logistics and Ukrainian UAVs suffer more casualties than infantry, according to Konrad Muzyka of military analytics company Rochan Consulting in Poland.
The failure forced Ukrainian FPV pilots to launch UAVs from further positions, limiting the range of attack. Meanwhile, Russian UAVs are flying deeper into Ukraine.
The combat learning capability of the Russian army has surpassed Ukraine in medium-range strikes. They are intercepting the target 40-70km from the front line. Previously, to achieve this effect, it was necessary to use manned aircraft" - expert George Barros, Institute for the Study of War in Washington, USA, commented.
The killing spree is now shifting more towards the back of Ukraines front line, as Russia has improved its capabilities, Rob Lee, an expert at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, US, assessed.
The battle in the city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, clearly showed how Russia took the lead in the tactical UAV confrontation. Ukrainian soldiers here said that the correlation between the number of Russian and Ukrainian UAVs is currently 10-1.
Russian forces have been trying to take the city of 60,000 people for the past 18 months. Currently, most of Pokrovsk has become a gray area, with neither side completely controlling it. Soldiers on both sides are stationed in dilapidated buildings, sometimes not knowing where the opponent is around them.
