According to a forecast by global economic research and consulting organization Oxford Economics, Vietnam's economy continues to affirm its leading position in the ASEAN-6 region, with an expected growth rate of 6.5% by 2025.
Vietnam is forecast to maintain faster growth than its neighbors thanks to large contributions from the manufacturing sector, especially machinery and textiles.
Vietnam’s manufacturing sector remains strong. In particular, Vietnam is a hub for semiconductor assembly, packaging and testing, and this trend will continue to benefit next year, although the growth may be weaker than in 2024.
Oxford Economics forecasts that Vietnam’s domestic consumption will continue to grow strongly thanks to steady wage growth, supported by jobs from foreign direct investment (FDI). The number of active enterprises will continue to grow annually, which could boost wealth accumulation by 2025, although FDI inflows may slow temporarily as they await US tariff announcements.
Credit growth is also expected to improve in 2025 thanks to recent changes in credit controls and the recovery of domestic enterprises. However, the real estate sector will remain under pressure until the end of 2025 and the process of handling bad debts will take more time.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth at 6.7% in 2025, with growth slowing from 7.5% in the first half to 6.1% in the second half.
Vietnam’s economic growth will remain strong in 2024, with exports rising 14.9% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2024, while imports are expected to rise 16.8%, with electronics exports and imports continuing to recover, according to Standard Chartered economists.
Solid growth in manufacturing and relatively accommodative monetary policy may also have contributed to an economic recovery in 2024.
Demand for foreign investment remained strong. Disbursed FDI increased by 8.8% year-on-year while committed FDI increased by 1.9% over the same period. Manufacturing accounted for 62.6% of total committed FDI, while the real estate sector’s share was 19.0%, up year-on-year.
“We expect the State Bank of Vietnam to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points in the second quarter of 2025,” said Tim Leelahaphan, economist at Standard Chartered in Thailand and Vietnam. “The government’s desire for stronger economic growth may currently support low interest rates, but this trend may change as inflation rises.”
With a solid foundation in production, domestic consumption and strong investment flows, Vietnam will continue to affirm its position as an economic bright spot in the ASEAN-6 region in 2025 and beyond.
