Kick first, or win when throwing a coin
Winning in the coin-throwing round before the penalty shootout brings a clear advantage. Research in the period 1970-2003 at the World Cup, EURO and English domestic cups shows that the team that shoots first wins 60.5% of the penalty shootouts. After the rules changed in 2003, about 60% of the team that wins by throwing a coin (choosing to shoot before or after) won, while the team that shoots first only won about 51%.
In a study of more than 1,700 penalties over 4 seasons from 2015 to 2018 in England, Spain, Germany and Italy published in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport in 2000, one of the most interesting findings is that effective techniques are really different depending on each country. For example, shooting into the middle of the goal is easy to succeed in the Premier League, but in La Liga, the lower corners on both sides are easier to "score points".
The long run (more than 6 steps) is related to successful penalties in all 4 tournaments. Except for Italy, the average run (2 to 5 steps) is also successful. Short runs are not a significant advantage anywhere.
Strong shot and position
A 2002 paper showed that it is not surprising that shots with little force are easily blocked, shots with too much force are easily missed, and the optimal point lies between these 2 extremes. They suggest that shots with about 75% maximum force have the highest success rate. Meanwhile, shots with the sole of the foot are considered dangerous shots, and shots with the back of the foot are strong shots. Both types of shots are related to successful penalty kicks in Spain, Italy and Germany, but in England only dangerous shots are significantly related to success. Panenka-style curling shots are not favored or have significant success anywhere.
Studies show that there is a trade-off between risk and reward when choosing a shooting position: high shots are harder to block but more likely to fail, while players often prioritize low shots to increase chance of hitting the target. Premier League (Opta) statistics show that low shots reach 77.2%, low shots must reach 80%, low mid-range shots 80.2%, and high shots into the middle reach 97.8%.
Goalkeeper's behavior
Goalkeepers often predict the shooting direction based on body language because they do not have enough time to react. Although 20-30% of shots go in the middle, they still almost always lean to the side, reflecting "action bias" - prioritizing proactive intervention over standing still waiting for the ball.
