After winning the championship at Indian Wells and Miami in March, Sinner narrowed the gap in the PIF ATP Live Rankings with Carlos Alcaraz to 190 points. Before entering the Monte Carlo Masters 2026 tournament, the pressure of the two players was very different.
With Sinner, he has no points to defend, because last year he missed this tournament. Meanwhile, Carlos Alcaraz is defending 1,000 points after winning his first championship at the Principality of Monaco 12 months ago.
If Sinner does not reach at least the semi-finals in Monte Carlo, Alcaraz will still hold the world No. 1 position on April 13. But there are many different scenarios that the Italian player can rise to the No. 1 position.
The simplest scenario is to win the championship. If Sinner wins the Monte Carlo title, he will definitely climb to the number 1 position regardless of how Alcaraz plays at Monaco.
If Sinner reaches the semi-finals and Alcaraz is eliminated before the quarter-finals, Sinner will return to the world No. 1 position. If Sinner reaches the final and Alcaraz does not, the Italian player will also return to the world No. 1 position. In any other scenario, Alcaraz will still maintain the world No. 1 position after the tournament.
According to statistics from ATP, Sinner has a record of 10–4 (10 wins, 4 losses) in Monte Carlo, with the best result being reaching the semi-finals in 2023 and 2024. Meanwhile, Alcaraz has never won a match at this tournament before last year, but had an excellent week of competition in 2025 to win the championship.
In addition to Monte Carlo, Alcaraz will face a series of difficult matches on clay courts with 3,300 points to be defended thanks to his excellent performance last year, when he won Roland Garros and Rome Masters, and reached the final in Barcelona. Sinner has 1,950 points to be defended after finishing second against Alcaraz in both Roland Garros and Rome.
On April 6th, Alcaraz will enter its 66th week holding the world No. 1 position, equaling Sinner's record. But with the gap narrowing and the clay court season just beginning, the Monte Carlo tournament may mark an important turning point in the battle for the No. 1 position.
If Alcaraz and Sinner meet in the final, this will be the first encounter between the two since the Nitto ATP Finals final in November 2025, the winner will win the championship and the No. 1 position in the PIF ATP rankings.
