As the No. 1 seed, Alcaraz is exempted from the first round. In the second round, the Spanish player is likely to face Stanislas Wawrinka if the former Grand Slam champion passes the challenge named Sebastian Baez.
In round 3, Alcaraz's potential opponents include Frances Tiafoe, Grigor Dimitrov, Terence Atmane or Tomas Martin Etcheverry. In this group, Etcheverry is assessed to be able to cause greater difficulties thanks to his clay court forte, while Dimitrov is no longer at his peak form, and Tiafoe has just played deeply in another ATP tournament and may be affected physically.
If he advances to the quarterfinals, Alcaraz could face one of the players including Alexander Bublik, Jiri Lehecka, Tallon Griekspoor or Alejandro Tabilo. In the semi-finals, the most notable opponents in the same bracket are Lorenzo Musetti, who lost to Alcaraz in the final of Monte Carlo Masters 2025, or Alex De Minaur.
In the context that Musetti has not reached his best physical condition, and De Minaur often encounters difficulties when facing the top 10 players, Alcaraz's opportunity to go deep and aim to defend the title is considered quite clear.
Previously, the 22-year-old player had just stopped at the Miami Open after a defeat to Sebastian Korda. After this tournament, Alcaraz returned to practice in Murcia (Spain) to recover his fitness and adjust his expertise before the clay court season. He also had a notable practice match with young talent compatriot Martin Landaluce - a player who just made an impression when going deep at the Miami Open.
With the advantage of the bracket and a stable foundation of form on clay, Alcaraz is expected to continue to be a top candidate for the championship at Monte Carlo this year.
