That is the forecast of MSc. Doan Tien Quyet - Vietnam Oil and Gas Industry Data Analysis Department (VPI) on the world petroleum situation in the last 6 months of 2025.
According to MSc. Doan Tien Quyet, in the first half of 2025, the retail petroleum market in Vietnam has undergone a total of 26 price adjustments. Domestic gasoline prices are still quite stable, showing the regulatory role and good adaptability of the Government in regulating this important energy sector.
"Domestic gasoline prices in the first months of the year tended to fluctuate in a downward trend, with some periods of strong fluctuations due to the Iran-Israe war. Accordingly, between June and nearly July, gasoline prices have had strong price increases.
The fluctuations in gasoline prices in the first half of 2025 have had a multi-dimensional and clear impact on Vietnam's economy. Although general inflation is still under control, price increases and decreases have created significant pressure on production costs and people's lives" - MSc. Doan Tien Quyet assessed.
Following the developments of the crude oil market, MSc. Doan Tien Quyet predicts that the world petroleum market will not have too many fluctuations in the next 6 months. In particular, market trends will focus on a number of factors such as trade policy and risks from tariffs.
"The market is still sensitive to developments in the Middle East. The Israel-Iran conflict in June caused oil prices to fluctuate, although it has since cooled down. The risk of the problem escalating again if the nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran do not progress, this is considered a risk that could push up oil prices" - MSc. Doan Tien Quyet predicted.
According to MSc. Doan Tien Quyet, the market is also affected by OPEC+ policies. Currently, OPEC+ is accelerating the easing of autonomous production cuts. This organization is expected to stop loosening production after October. However, this policy may change. OPEC+ deciding to end the easing earlier or return to a deeper cut is a risk that could push prices up. Conversely, if they continue to increase production to gain market share, oil prices may decrease.
This expert believes that global industrial production (IP) growth is expected to increase from 1.6% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025. However, this rate is still lower than GDP growth, showing a moderate recovery in the manufacturing sector. Global aviation fuel demand will reach pre-pandemic levels in the summer of 2025.
Regarding supply, VPI experts predict that global oil refining output is expected to average 83 million barrels/day in the third quarter of 2025 to meet peak summer demand. The increased operation of the Dangote Oil Refinery ( Africa) has reduced the demand for gasoline imports from West Africa from Europe, putting pressure on the excess gasoline supply in the Atlantic basin.
"In this context, the world oil market in the last 6 months of 2025 is dependent on many geopolitical factors. In which tariffs and tensions in the Middle East are still key. World oil prices are forecast to be at an average of 65-75 USD/barrel for 2025" - MSc. Doan Tien Quyet predicted.
