Forecast of gasoline prices in the operating period on May 15

Thạch Lam |

It is forecasted that in the price adjustment period on May 15, gasoline prices may be adjusted up simultaneously after 2 consecutive declines.

According to a survey at 14:36 on May 13 (Vietnam time), WTI oil price increased by 0.13 USD/barrel (up 0.21%), to 62.08 USD/barrel. Brent oil price increased by 0.06 USD/barrel (up 0.09%), to 65.02 USD/barrel.

The US and China agreed to cut sharp tariffs for at least 90 days, causing Wall Street stocks, the US dollar and crude oil prices to increase sharply on Monday.

"While easing trade tensions between China and the US is a positive thing, there is still much uncertainty about how it will play out in the next 90 days. This uncertainty could continue to hinder oil demand," ING analysts said via email to customers.

ING analysts also noted that: "While demand is a top concern for the oil market, increased supply from OPEC+ is expected to ensure the oil market remains fully supplied for most of this year."

They emphasized that the level of market supply depends on whether OPEC+ continues to plan to increase production strongly in May and June.

Since April, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has increased oil production far beyond expectations. It is expected that May output could increase by 411,000 barrels per day.

For the domestic market, Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, predicted that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline could increase by 225 VND (1.2%) to 18,995 VND/liter. Meanwhile, RON 95-III gasoline may increase by 374 VND (1.9%) to 19,544 VND/liter.

VPI's model predicts that mazut prices may decrease by VND 326 (2.1%) to VND 15,204/kg. Diesel is forecast to increase by 1% to VND16,966/liter. Kerosene may increase slightly by 0.2% to VND 16,977/liter.

VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

According to a representative of a petroleum business, domestic petroleum prices will fluctuate according to the world petroleum situation. According to current market developments, it is forecasted that in the next price adjustment period, retail prices of gasoline may increase.

Of which, gasoline price is forecast to increase by about 300-400 VND/liter; Diesel oil increases by about 200-300 VND/liter.

Domestic retail gasoline prices on May 13, 2025 will be applied according to the adjustment session from 3:00 p.m. on May 8 of the Ministry of Finance - Ministry of Industry and Trade.

In the adjustment session on May 8, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline decreased compared to the previous adjustment period, at VND18,777/liter (down VND377/liter). RON 95-III gasoline price decreased compared to the previous adjustment period, at VND19,179/liter (down VND407/liter).

Prices of oil products have decreased simultaneously. Of which, diesel 0.05S is priced at VND 16,809/liter (down VND 550/liter); kerosene has a new price of VND 16,941/liter (down VND 623/liter); mazut is priced at VND 15,533/kg (down VND 665/kg).

Thạch Lam
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