According to a survey at 2:56 p.m. on June 19 (Vietnam time), WTI oil prices decreased by 0.35 USD/barrel (down 0.48%), down to 72.92 USD/barrel. Brent oil price decreased by 0.38 USD/barrel (down 0.5%), down to 76.07 USD/barrel.
According to analysts, the oil market is currently dominated by concerns about the risk of supply disruption in the Hormuz Strait - a strategic transport route that accounts for about 20% of the oil transported by global sea.
Fitch Ratings noted in a report to customers that if Iran's oil production or export facilities encounter serious problems, oil prices could face further upward pressure. However, even in the worst case scenario where all of Iran's oil exports are disrupted, supply from reserve capacity of countries in the OPEC+ alliance - estimated at about 5.7 million barrels per day - is still likely to compensate somewhat.
In terms of technical analysis, some experts still maintain a positive view. Mr. Kelvin Wong, senior analyst at OANDA, commented that WTI oil prices may increase in the short term due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In addition, he also pointed out that the long-term speculative position in the WTI futures market is currently relatively low, which could support the price increase in the coming time.
Mr. Doan Tien Quyet - data analysis expert of VPI - predicted that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may increase by VND1,255 (6.5%) to VND20,525/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may increase by VND1,317 (6.6%) to VND21,277/liter.
VPI's model forecasts retail oil prices this period to increase simultaneously, specifically, diesel may increase by 6.9% to VND18,921/liter, kerosene may increase by 6.9% to VND18,718/liter, and mazut is forecast to increase by 7.7% to VND17,727/kg.VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.
A representative of a petroleum business also said that the domestic market will fluctuate according to the world petroleum situation. According to current market developments, it is forecasted that in the upcoming price adjustment period, retail prices of gasoline may increase sharply.
In particular, the price of RON 95 - III gasoline is forecast to increase by about 1,210 VND/liter; E5 RON 92 - II gasoline increases by about 1,100 VND/liter; Diesel increases by about 1,350 VND/liter.
Domestic retail gasoline prices on June 18, 2025 will be applied according to the adjustment session from 3:00 p.m. on June 12 of the Ministry of Finance - Ministry of Industry and Trade.
In the adjustment session on June 12, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline increased compared to the previous adjustment period, at VND 19,462/liter (up VND 199/liter). RON 95-III gasoline price increased compared to the previous adjustment period, priced at VND19/967/liter (up VND269/liter).
Prices of oil products have also increased simultaneously. Of which, diesel 0.05S is priced at VND17,700/liter (up VND280/liter); kerosene has a new price of VND17,511/liter (up VND227/liter); mazut is priced at VND16,461/kg (up VND283/kg).
