Domestic coffee prices
Welcoming the new year 2026, the domestic coffee market opened the morning trading session today (Thursday, January 1st) with optimistic signals. Green color continues to spread widely in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, extending the recovery momentum from the last days of last year. Compared to yesterday's trading session (December 31, 2025), the purchase price of crushed coffee in localities has increased by an average of 200 to 500 VND/kg, bringing the regional average price to 98,200 VND/kg.
Lam Dong is the place that recorded the strongest increase in the first day of the year with an increase of 500 VND/kg, bringing the purchasing price from 97,000 VND to 97,500 VND/kg. Although it is still the lowest price in the region, this increase shows that purchasing power is returning strongly in this capital. In Dak Lak, coffee prices today edged up slightly by 300 VND/kg, officially anchored at 98,300 VND/kg.
Sharing the leading position in price is Dak Nong province (old), which also recorded an increase of 300 VND/kg to reach the 98,300 VND/kg mark. Meanwhile, in Gia Lai, the trading market is slightly more quiet with a modest increase of 200 VND/kg, currently agents are purchasing at 98,000 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
On the international market, the trading session witnessed mixed developments but still maintained important bright spots for Vietnamese coffee. On the London exchange, Robusta coffee futures for March 2026 delivery - the main reference term - maintained a slight increase, adding 4 USD (0.10%) to close the session at 3,949 USD/ton. Notably, the January 2026 spot delivery still maintained its heat with an increase of 17 USD, anchored high at 4,109 USD/ton. This is the highest level in the past 2.5 weeks, reflecting concerns about the fact that spot supply is being tightened.
In contrast to Robusta, the New York Stock Exchange witnessed a downward adjustment of Arabica coffee under the pressure of the greenback. At the end of the session, Arabica futures for March 2026 fell 1.45 cents (0.41%), retreating to 348.75 cents/lb. The fact that the Dollar Index (DXY) jumped to the highest level in the past week has triggered pressure to liquidate buying positions on the New York Stock Exchange, making Arabica unable to maintain its upward momentum at the beginning of the session even though it once reached a 2-week peak.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
Stepping into 2026, the coffee market is strongly dominated by extreme weather factors. The main driving force helping Robusta maintain its growth momentum comes from the serious flooding situation in Indonesia. According to the Indonesian Coffee Exporters Association, floods in Northern Sumatra - the main Arabica growing region - have affected 1/3 of the cultivated area and threatened to reduce coffee export turnover of this country by up to 15% in the 2025-2026 crop year. With the position of the 3rd largest Robusta producer in the world, all production risks in Indonesia directly affect price sentiment on the London exchange.
In addition, in Brazil, the drought in Minas Gerais (only receiving 17% of the historical average rainfall in the past week) continues to be a factor supporting the price base, preventing the deep decline of the market. However, the price increase may face resistance from information that Vietnam's supply is abundant. November export data increased by 39% and forecast new crop year output increased by 6% to 1.76 million tons are telling figures, showing that selling pressure for new crops from Vietnam will increase in the first quarter of this year.
