Domestic coffee prices fluctuate sharply
After a period of fluctuating around the area below 90,000 VND/kg at the end of June, domestic coffee prices rebounded sharply in early July.
On June 30, the average coffee price was recorded at 89,200 VND/kg. By July 3, the average price increased to 93,000 VND/kg, an increase of about 3,800 VND/kg after only a few days.
The upward momentum continued to be boosted in the session on July 7, when the average coffee price reached 96,800 VND/kg. In the old Dak Nong area, the purchase price at one point reached 97,000 VND/kg, while Dak Lak and Gia Lai also moved closer to this area.
However, the market quickly reversed direction. On July 8, the average price decreased to 94,800 VND/kg. By July 9, the price continued to fall to 92,300 VND/kg, showing that adjustment pressure appeared after a hot increase.
After that, coffee prices rebounded sharply in the session of July 11, with an average of 98,300 VND/kg, approaching the 100,000 VND/kg mark. This is the highest price range in the recent data series.
By the latest update, the average price is at 95,200 VND/kg. In Dak Lak and Gia Lai, coffee prices both reached 95,200 VND/kg; Lam Dong at 94,700 VND/kg; old Dak Nong area at 95,300 VND/kg.
World coffee prices rise sharply then adjust
Domestic developments go hand in hand with strong fluctuations in world coffee prices. In the first sessions of July, both Robusta on the London exchange and Arabica on the New York exchange had very strong increases.
At one point, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract exceeded the 4,000 USD/ton mark. The September 2026 Arabica futures also once increased to over 340 US cents/lb, after a strong increase on the New York exchange.
This increase reflects market concerns about weather risks in major production areas, in which Brazil continues to be the focus. Brazil is the world's largest Arabica producer, so information about harvest progress, unusual rain or grain quality can strongly impact prices.
However, after increasing too quickly, world coffee prices have seen adjustments. Robusta and Arabica have both decreased in recent sessions, pulling domestic coffee prices down accordingly.
This development shows that the coffee market is in a very sensitive state. Prices may increase sharply when unfavorable weather or inventory information appears, but it is also easy to reverse when profit-taking force appears after hot uptrends.
Coffee price assessment
From a global supply-demand perspective, a report by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) shows that the coffee market has been greatly affected by expectations of improved supply and export fluctuations in recent times. This is a factor that makes the price increase not completely sustainable.
For Brazil, the Foreign Agricultural Services Agency of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA/FAS) said that the Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts Brazil's coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year to reach 66.7 million bags, an increase of 18% compared to 2025.
The prospect of a large crop in Brazil is a factor that could put pressure on Arabica prices in the medium term. The Dutch bank Rabobank also assessed that the expectation of a large coffee crop in Brazil could put pressure on global prices, in the context of generally favorable weather conditions for crop development.
For Robusta, supply from Vietnam continues to be an important factor. The USDA/FAS report forecasts that Vietnam's coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year will increase to 32.5 million bags converted to green beans, thanks to production expansion after a period of high coffee prices.
In the coming time, coffee prices may continue to fluctuate strongly around the highlands. Factors to monitor include harvest progress in Brazil, Vietnam's production prospects, inventories on exchanges and profit-taking activities after hot increases.
