Domestic coffee prices drop sharply
The domestic coffee market closed last week's session with a sharp correction after a long series of increases. Coffee prices in the Central Highlands provinces have decreased from 1,300 - 1,500 VND/kg, bringing the average price to 129,500 - 131,000 VND/kg.
Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Dak Nong: 131,000 VND/kg, down 1,300 VND/kg.
Lam Dong: 129,500 VND/kg, down 1,500 VND/kg.
After reaching 133,000 VND/kg last week, domestic coffee prices have turned down due to profit-taking pressure from sellers and cautious business sentiment.
World coffee price developments
On the London Stock Exchange, Robusta coffee prices also fell sharply after reaching a peak of 5,817 USD/ton on February 13. At the end of the most recent session:
Robusta March 2025 term: 5,735 USD/ton, down 59 USD/ton (1.02%).
Robusta futures for May 2025: 5,726 USD/ton, down 62 USD/ton (1.07%).
Similarly, on the New York Stock Exchange, Arabica coffee prices continued to plummet due to selling pressure:
Arabica futures for March 2025: 419,75 cents/lb, down 19.15 cents/lb (-4.36%).
Arabica futures for May 2025: 407.40 cents/lb, down 17.70 cents/lb (-4.16%).
Reasons for coffee prices to decrease
Coffee prices turned to decrease due to profit-taking. After coffee prices hit a record high last week, investors stepped up selling to preserve profits.
The latest report shows that coffee output in Brazil and Vietnam may increase again in the coming crop year, causing speculators to adjust their expectations.
In addition, the stronger USD also puts downward pressure on commodities, including coffee.
Although coffee prices are showing signs of correction, experts say the market still has many potential risks because actual supply has not improved significantly.
According to a survey from Reuters, Arabica prices may decrease by about 30% by the end of 2025, as high prices affect consumption demand. At the same time, it is forecasted that Brazil's coffee output in the 2025/26 crop year could reach 40.55 million bags, down from the previous crop year but still enough to ensure supply.
Vietnam and Brazil are showing signs of increasing Robusta exports, putting pressure on the price of this type of coffee. Some traders predict that Robusta prices could reach 4,200 USD/ton by the end of 2025, down about 28% compared to present.
Analysts recommend that businesses and coffee growers need to closely monitor market developments to avoid selling off during the time of strong price adjustments.
