Domestic coffee prices
On November 20, the domestic market was under strong pressure to adjust, the average coffee price in the Central Highlands region decreased to VND 113,300/kg (down VND 1,200/kg).
Detailed fluctuations in localities:
Dak Nong (old): The sharpest decrease was 1,300 VND/kg, to 113,500 VND/kg.
Dak Lak: Decreased by VND 1,200/kg, to VND 113,500/kg.
Gia Lai: down 1,200 VND/kg, down to 113,000 VND/kg.
Lam Dong: down 1,200 VND/kg, to the lowest level of 112,500 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
The international market (end of the session on November 19) witnessed a strong sell-off session, especially on the Arabica floor.
Robusta ( London): Reversed down 57 USD/ton (equivalent to -1.24%), closing the November term at 4,517 USD/ton. The January 2026 term also decreased similarly to 4,516 USD/ton.
Arabica (New York): Sharp decline, down to 10.85 US cents/lb (equivalent to -2.60%), closing December term at 404.50 US cents/lb.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The main reason for this decline comes from positive weather information in Brazil. The latest forecasts from Climatempo show that the country's key coffee growing regions will see heavy rains over the weekend and continue into the following week. This helps relieve the fear of drought and support the development of coffee trees in the coming crop, causing speculators to quickly sell them to make a profit or cut losses.
In addition to weather factors, the "chaos" of information about US tariff policies also makes the market uncertain. Although the US government has announced the lift of tariffs on non-ismunded goods, Brazil is concerned that a separate 40% tax rate related to a national emergency could still be applied. In addition, StoneX's forecast that Brazil's coffee output in the coming crop year could skyrocket by 29% also creates more pressure on prices.
However, the market's decline is still facing difficulties from the shortage of inventories. Arabica inventories on the ICE have now fallen to a 1.75-year low, while Robusta has also hit a four-month low. In the short term, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly as investors have to consider between the prospect of a good harvest in the future and the reality of a shortage of goods right at port warehouses at the moment.
