Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market today witnessed a "cyclone" price increase. If yesterday the market only recovered slightly, today, strong buying pressure has pushed up purchasing prices in key regions from VND 2,100 to VND 2,500/kg. The average price has now reached VND95,000/kg.
Specifically, Dak Nong province (old) continued to lead the increase when it added VND 2,500/kg, setting a peak price of VND 95,300/kg.
In the capital Dak Lak, prices also increased by VND2,500/kg, reaching around VND95,000/kg. This is a spectacular V-shaped recovery compared to the bottom of 89,300 VND/kg last week.
Similarly, in Lam Dong, coffee prices increased by VND2,500/kg, reaching VND94,500/kg.
Gia Lai province recorded an increase of VND 2,100/kg, currently trading at VND 94,800/kg.
World coffee prices
In the international market, the London Stock Exchange had an explosive trading session, playing a leading role in pushing up global coffee prices.
Robusta coffee futures for delivery in January 2026 increased sharply by 104 USD/ton (equivalent to 2.69%), closing the session at 3,970 USD/ton. Thus, Robusta is moving very close to the important psychological mark of 4,000 USD/ton.
In contrast to Robusta's excitement, the New York Stock had a calmer performance. Arabica coffee futures for delivery in March 2026 closed slightly down 0.40 cents/lb (down 0.12%), down to 346.95 cents/lb. This differentiation reflects individual concerns about the supply of each type of coffee in the short term.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The main reason for Robusta's strong increase and domestic prices today came from extreme weather information in Indonesia.
Reports say widespread flooding in North Sumatra is seriously threatening exports and the country's coffee growing region. The disruption of supply from Indonesia has forced cash flow to seek alternative sources of supply, thereby pushing Robusta prices skyrocketing.
In addition, weather factors in Brazil continue to support prices. A report from Somar Meteorologia shows that Minas Gerais received just 38.3 mm of rain last week (76% of the historical average). This figure is lower than expected, raising concerns about inadequate soil moisture for the seed development stage, despite Conab's previous increase in the 2025 output forecast to 56.54 million bags.
However, Arabica's increase was held back by inventory pressure. Arabica inventories on the ICE have recovered to a 2-month high (453,764 bags), showing that the supply of this type of seed in reserves is improving.
On the Vietnamese side, although exports in November increased sharply by 39% and new crop output is forecast to increase by 6% (according to Vicofa, it is 10%), the demand for goods from exporters to pay signed contracts is still very large. The resonance between concerns about shortages from Indonesia and real demand in Vietnam is expected to keep domestic coffee prices above VND94,000/kg in the coming sessions, although short-term profit-taking pressure may appear.
Note: The above prices are for reference only.
