Domestic coffee prices
Today, the domestic market did not have any new fluctuations in listed prices, however, looking back at the developments of the past week (from December 15 to December 20), the domestic coffee market has experienced price reductions that have "shocked" the entire supply chain.
Opening the week at a fairly optimistic coffee price, the market quickly came under strong selling pressure in the middle of the week. Most notably, in the trading session on December 18, coffee prices decreased by nearly VND 4,000/kg, officially losing the psychological support level of VND 90,000/kg.
At the end of the trading week, the current price level has retreated to around 89,300 VND/kg. Specifically, Dak Lak and Dak Nong (old) are trading around 89,300 - 89,500 VND/kg, while Lam Dong - the lowest price area - has dropped to 88,500 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
At the end of the weekend trading session (Friday), the international market recorded differentiation, but the negative trend still dominated Arabica.
On the New York Stock Exchange, Arabica coffee futures for March 2026 continued to decrease by 4.45 cents/lb (equivalent to a decrease of 1.29%), setting a new low in the past 4 months. Selling pressure is still very strong despite supportive information about inventories in the US.
In contrast, on the London Stock Exchange, Robusta coffee futures for January 2026 had a slight technical recovery session when increasing by 4 USD/ton (equivalent to 0.11%). However, this increase is insignificant compared to the series of price decreases that have lasted for the past two weeks, showing that market sentiment is still very weak.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The market is being dominated by two opposing information flows: Pressure from weather/short-term supply and Long-term supply and demand report from USDA.
In the short term, downward pressure still exists: The weather in Brazil is extremely favorable. Climatempo forecasts heavy and persistent rain to continue this week in coffee growing areas. In fact, Minas Gerais has received 155% of its historical average rainfall over the past week, dispelling concerns about droughts. In addition, Arabica inventories on the ICE floor recovered to a seven-week high (439,257 bags) on Friday, putting pressure on prices.
In the long term, the latest USDA (FAS) report provides a multi-dimensional view: In the 6-month periodic report released on Thursday, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that global coffee output in the 2025-2026 crop year will increase by 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags.
Notably: There is a complete contrast between the two types of coffee. Arabica output is expected to decrease by 4.7%, while Robusta output will increase sharply by 10.9%.
Regarding Vietnam, the USDA forecasts that Vietnam's coffee output in the 2025/2026 crop year will increase by 6.2% to 30.8 million bags - the highest level in the past 4 years. This reinforces the view that Robusta supply will be abundant.
For Brazil, contrary to Conab's increase forecast, the USDA believes that Brazil's output will decrease by 3.1% to 63 million bags.
End-of-term inventory: Despite rising global output, the USDA forecasts end-of-term inventory in 2025/2026 to fall by 5.4% to 20.148 million bags. This could be a factor supporting prices in the medium term if consumption demand continues to maintain growth momentum.
In short, coffee prices (especially Robusta) are still under pressure from Vietnam's harvest and good weather in Brazil. However, the USDA forecast of reduced end-of-term inventories and declining Arabica output may help limit the market's deep fall in the coming time.
Note: The above domestic coffee prices are for reference only updated in key growing areas.
