Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning (March 27) recorded a downward adjustment, pushing prices away from the support level of 93,000 VND/kg. Agents in the Central Highlands region simultaneously reduced purchase prices from 500 - 700 VND/kg, causing the average price level of the whole region to fall back to 92,600 VND/kg.
Detailed changes in key localities:
Dak Nong (old): Reduced by 500 VND, currently purchased at 92,700 VND/kg.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Both adjusted down sharply by 700 VND, currently fluctuating around the threshold of 92,500 VND/kg.
Lam Dong: Recorded price of 91,700 VND/kg after a decrease of 500 VND compared to the previous session.
Although it has decreased significantly compared to the high of 96,900 VND recorded at the end of February, the current price base is still trying to accumulate in the face of negative fluctuations from the international futures exchange.
World coffee prices
Thursday's trading session witnessed a simultaneous decline on both exchanges due to the prospect of abundant supply from South America.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): May 2026 futures fell sharply by 8.45 cents (-2.67%), closing at 307.65 cents/lb. Selling pressure exploded after Marex Group Plc forecast Brazil's 2026/27 crop output to reach a record 75.9 million sacks (up 15.5% y/y), exceeding all previous forecasts from Sucafina and StoneX. Arabica's ICE inventory hitting a 6-month peak (585.621 sacks) also stalled the increase.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): May 2026 futures fell 33 USD (-0.91%), closing the session at 3,596 USD/ton. Robusta's decline was somewhat curbed thanks to ICE floor inventories continuing to fall to a 2.5-month low (only 4,173 lots). However, Vietnam's export data for the first 2 months of the year increased by 14% (reaching 366,000 tons) is still a major barrier.
Market outlook
The coffee market is entering a sensitive phase as forecasts for record crops in Brazil are continuously released. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted sea transport, is still a cost-supporting factor, but not enough to cope with long-term oversupply pressure. Although Brazilian farmers are limiting sales to wait for higher prices, the prospect of a bumper crop of 75.9 million bags is causing speculators to worry.
It is forecasted that in the last sessions of the week, coffee prices will continue to fluctuate strongly around the area of 91,500 - 93,000 VND/kg. Developments in Brazil when low rainfall in Minas Gerais (only reaching 45% of the historical average) may be the only factor helping prices have technical recovery.
The actual price may differ depending on the quality and purchasing area.
