Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market entered Sunday (April 5th) with a cautious sentiment. After a sharp decrease of 800 - 1,000 VND/kg in the last trading session of the week, the purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is currently anchored at an average of 89,200 VND/kg.
Detailed purchase prices in key localities:
Dak Nong (old): Recorded price of 89,300 VND/kg.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Both maintain a trading level of 89. 200 VND/kg.
Lam Dong: Anchored at the lowest level in the region at 88,700 VND/kg.
Compared to the peak of 96,600 VND/kg set on March 7, the current coffee price has evaporated by about 7,400 VND/kg. This decrease has swept away all the gains of the market throughout the past month.
World coffee prices
At the end of the trading week, red covered both London and New York exchanges as hedge funds aggressively liquidated positions.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): May 2026 futures closed at 3,448 USD/ton, after a sharp decrease of 73 USD (-2.07%). Abundant export pressure from Vietnam (in the first 2 months of the year, an increase of 14% to 360,000 tons) along with forecasts that next crop output will increase by 6% have put negative pressure on this exchange. The decline still occurred even though Robusta inventory on the ICE floor hit a 3.5-month low of 4,993 lots.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): May 2026 futures stopped at 295.40 cents/lb, down 2.40 cents (-0.81%). The upward momentum of the USD index ($DXY) and ICE-Arabica inventories hitting a 6-month high (585.621 bags) continued to be major draggers on Arabica prices.
Market outlook
The coffee market is under double pressure from macro forecasts about Brazil's upcoming record crop. Marex Group Plc has just raised its forecast for Brazil's production for the 2026/27 crop year to a record level of 75.9 million bags (up 15.5% y/y), higher than the forecasts of StoneX (75.3 million bags) and Sucafina (75.4 million bags). This long-term oversupply sentiment is overshadowing concerns about the current drought in the Minas Gerais region (rainfall only reached 47% of the historical average).
However, bottlenecks from the continued closure of themuz Strait are still quietly supporting prices by pushing up transportation, insurance and fuel costs. In addition, Brazilian farmers' restrictions on sales during the price drop could trigger short-term technical recovery as the market reopens next week.
It is forecasted that in the coming sessions, domestic coffee prices will continue to be in a bottom-fishing state and accumulate around 88,000 - 8,950 VND/kg.
Real prices in localities may vary depending on quality and purchasing area.
