Despite continuously adjusting down the gold price target in 2026, experts from a subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company financial services group in the US - Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) - still maintain a positive outlook on the precious metal. Gold prices are forecast to reach 4,900-5,100 USD/ounce by the end of 2026, showing that the upward outlook is still significantly assessed even though US monetary policy continues to be a drag.
In its latest investment strategy report, Wells Fargo said it has adjusted its gold price target for the end of 2026 to 4,900-5,100 USD/ounce, instead of the previously set 5,300-5,500 USD/ounce. The target for the end of 2027 has also been lowered to 5,400-5,600 USD/ounce. However, the organization still maintains a positive stance on the precious metal group and assesses that gold's upward momentum is not over.
According to Wells Fargo, gold prices are regaining momentum after about 5 months of difficult developments. In the first week of August, gold prices increased by more than 7%, recording the strongest weekly increase since January. The change in expectations about the Fed's monetary policy is one of the important factors supporting the precious metal, as the market reduced forecasts that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates.
Interest rates are one of the most influential variables on gold prices. Gold does not bring interest rates, so a prolonged high interest rate environment will increase the opportunity cost of holding precious metals. Conversely, as expectations that the Fed will continue to tighten policy decline, gold's attractiveness may improve.
Wells Fargo believes that gold price prospects are also strengthened by investment demand showing signs of recovery. Capital inflows into gold ETFs have stabilized in July and began to reverse to increase in the first days of August. According to data mentioned by Wells Fargo, as of August 11, the circulation volume of the largest gold ETF fund has increased again along with the recovery momentum of gold prices.
Another factor helping Wells Fargo maintain a positive outlook is gold demand in the international market. Experts say Asian investors' buying power remains relatively persistent, while central bank gold buying activity continues to play a role as a long-term supporting foundation for prices.
Wells Fargo assesses that global demand in the first half of 2026 still shows resilience. Although spot gold prices on the international market once faced adjustment pressure, buying power in Asia is still a noteworthy support. In addition, factors such as instability in the financial market, inflation risk and demand for asset diversification continue to maintain the role of gold in the investment portfolio.
However, Wells Fargo also warned that gold's upward path will not be smooth. US monetary policy remains a major risk, especially if interest rates remain high longer than expected. This could continue to support the USD and bond yields, thereby limiting cash flow into gold.
Lowering the forecast target shows that Wells Fargo has been significantly more cautious than previously predicted. However, the level of 4,900-5,100 USD/ounce is still significantly higher than the current price range, implying that this organization still sees room for the precious metal to increase in price in the last months of the year.
With a target of 5,400-5,600 USD/ounce by the end of 2027, Wells Fargo continues to bet on the long-term outlook for gold. According to the organization's assessment, short-term fluctuations due to interest rates, the USD and bond yields may cause gold prices to fluctuate sharply, but investment demand, ETF cash flow and buying power from central banks are still important factors supporting the long-term trend.
