Gold prices could receive a shock if this information becomes true

Khương Duy |

Information that Poland is considering selling part of its gold reserves to increase defense spending may put downward pressure on world gold prices.

According to Kitco, Poland - the country that buys the most gold among global central banks in the past two years and is one of the major drivers supporting the upward momentum of gold prices - is currently considering an unbelievable step: selling part of its gold reserves to finance large-scale military expansion.

In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict entering its fourth year and the increasingly tense security situation on the Eastern flank, Poland is considering the possibility of using gold reserves to sharply increase defense spending.

According to Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the issue, Polish Central Bank Governor Adam Glapinski has proposed a plan to mobilize up to 13 billion USD from selling part of the country's gold reserves to finance the plan to double the defense budget. This proposal is part of a plan supported by Polish President Karol Nawrocki.

Mr. Glapinski presented this proposal at a meeting with President Nawrocki on Wednesday. The Polish leader said he wanted to find a replacement for the European Union's funding program - a program that the US does not support. President Nawrocki and some members of the government expressed concern that the EU's $174 billion arms loan program could be costly and affect relations with Washington.

Nếu kế hoạch bán một phần dự trữ vàng để tài trợ cho chi tiêu quốc phòng của Ba Lan trở thành hiện thực, thị trường vàng thế giới có thể phải đối mặt với áp lực giảm giá đáng kể, do nguồn cung từ một trong những quốc gia tích trữ vàng lớn nhất tăng lên.
If the plan to sell part of Poland's gold reserves to finance defense spending becomes a reality, the world gold market may face significant downward pressure, due to increased supply from one of the largest gold hoarding countries. Photo: Phan Anh

According to sources, Governor Glapinski said that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) could generate profits by selling part of its approximately 550 tons of gold reserves, which could then be repurchased in the future. About 3.25 billion USD could be raised from other central bank sources, bringing the total additional funding for defense this year to 16 billion USD.

In the long term, the total value of the plan could reach about 50 billion USD, equivalent to the scale of SAFE loans that Europe plans to allocate to Poland.

Sources also said that another option being considered is to amend the law to allow central banks to revalue gold reserves, thereby recognizing profits from gold price increases, and at the same time building a law requiring this profit to be used for defense spending.

Diễn biến giá vàng thế giới những phiên giao dịch gần đây. Biểu đồ: Khương Duy
Developments in world gold prices in recent trading sessions. Chart: Khuong Duy

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Mr. Glapinski confirmed that he is building a plan based on gold reserves, but did not disclose specific details.

If gold sales take place, this will be a major change in Poland's policy. In recent years, the central bank of this country has been the largest official gold buyer in the world, adding more than 100 tons of gold to reserves in both 2024 and 2025.

In September last year, Mr. Glapinski said that the Central Bank of Poland intended to increase the proportion of gold to 30% of total national reserves to strengthen financial security.

In difficult times of global volatility and the search for a new financial order, gold is the only safe investment for national reserves" - NBP Governor Adam Glapinski declared at the time, while saying that the scale and speed of gold purchases will depend on market conditions.

Khương Duy
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