Arslan Ali - currency and commodity analyst at FX Empire, the US Federal Reserve (FED) is expected to cut interest rates in September and US presidential candidate Donald Trump's support for with lower interest rates and tariffs combining to boost demand for gold.
“Lower interest rates often make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive to investors. In addition, former US President Donald Trump's support for tax cuts, interest rate cuts and tariff increases has further supported gold prices. This policy stance is considered potentially inflationary and could weaken the dollar, making gold a more attractive safe-haven asset,” Arslan Ali said.
However, this expert said that despite many of these favorable factors, the strength of the USD is still restraining the rise of gold .
“US retail sales in June remained steady at $704.3 billion, indicating stable consumer spending. Despite a stronger USD, the stability of retail sales along with the Fed's cautious stance on interest rate cuts still contributed to gold's recent price gains.
Investors are turning to gold as a hedge against the FED's future interest rate adjustments and economic growth prospects," said Arslan Ali.
Also according to this expert, if gold can maintain the level of 2,462.54 USD/ounce, it could push the price to the resistance level of 2,484.03 USD/ounce, followed by the levels of 2,495.38 USD/ounce and 2,508.05 USD. /ounce".
Arslan Ali believes that a break below $2,462.54/ounce “could trigger a sell-off,” causing gold to fall off support levels of $2,451.33/ounce, $2,434.87/ounce and 2,420.02 USD/ounce”.
Meanwhile, senior market analyst Jim Wyckoff of Kitco Metals said that there is increasing opinion that the Fed will cut interest rates this fall, when the market currently sees the possibility of 100%. % FED will cut interest rates at its September meeting.
In addition, there has recently been some safe-haven demand driving the current rally in gold prices. There are reports that Chinese consumers are buying more gold recently amid concerns about China's economic health.
Technically, investors believe that August gold prices have a strong overall technical advantage in the short term. The next upside price objective is to produce a weekly close above solid resistance at $2,500 an ounce.
Key outside markets today see the USD index firmer. Recorded at 4:15 a.m. on July 19, the US Dollar Index measuring the fluctuation of the greenback with 6 major currencies was at 103,915 points (up 0.46%).
Meanwhile, Nymex crude oil prices increased slightly and traded around 83.25 USD/barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note is currently 4.179%.
