The investment bank, the securities company headquartered in the United States (Morgan Stanley), continues to maintain a positive outlook on gold prices, saying that the precious metal is in a rising market that has lasted for about 25 years. This investment bank still sets a target for gold prices to possibly rise to about $5,200/ounce by the end of 2026, despite warnings that the upward path will depend significantly on the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), real yields, the USD and capital inflows into gold ETFs.
The noteworthy comment was made by Mike Wilson - US stock strategy director and investment director of Morgan Stanley - when assessing the role of gold in the context of a changing financial market.
According to Wilson, gold's upward momentum is not a new phenomenon in 2026. "Gold has been in a rising market for 25 years," he said, believing that many investors have only really paid more attention to this trend since the beginning of this year.
In 2026, cash flow in the commodity market also had a notable shift. According to Wilson, after focusing on gold and gold mining stocks, cash flow successively shifted to silver, rare earths, metal stocks, energy and then the semiconductor group.
The common point of these asset groups is that they are all commodity-oriented. According to Morgan Stanley, this trend reflects investors' demand for assets that can help diversify portfolios and reduce dependence on traditional stocks.
Gold prices are still expected to reach 5,200 USD/ounce
Mike Wilson's optimistic view is also consistent with the previous forecast of Morgan Stanley's research department. This bank still sets a target for gold prices to reach about 5,200 USD/ounce by the end of 2026.
However, Morgan Stanley experts believe that to achieve this goal, the market needs more momentum from investment demand, especially capital flows into gold-backed ETFs.
In a report in June, experts Amy Gower and Martijn Rats said that central banks' gold buying activity may continue to be an important support for the market. However, cash flow into ETFs is one of the factors that may determine the possibility of gold prices continuing to expand their gains.
According to experts, the demand for gold ETFs is particularly sensitive to the Fed's policy outlook, real yields and the diễn biến of the USD. When the market expects the Fed to switch to a more loose monetary policy, real yields decrease and the USD weakens, gold's attractiveness may increase.
Conversely, this is also one of the biggest risks for gold price forecasts. Gold does not bring yields, so interest rates maintained at high levels for a long time will increase the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.
Morgan Stanley once noted that gold's sensitivity to monetary policy has become an important driving force for prices. This means that geopolitical factors or safe-haven demand are not always enough to push gold up if interest rate prospects become unfavorable.
Therefore, the next developments of gold prices will largely depend on how the Fed reacts to inflation and US economic data. Expectations for interest rate cuts may support cash flow back to gold ETFs, thereby creating more momentum for prices.
However, Morgan Stanley still maintains a positive stance in the long term. The bank assesses that gold is increasingly becoming an important asset in the diversification strategy, especially as the defense of the traditional stock-bond portfolio declines.
Recognizing that gold is in a 25-year uptrend cycle, along with a target of $5,200/ounce by the end of 2026, shows that Morgan Stanley is still betting on the upward outlook for the precious metal. However, the ability to realize this goal will depend on a key variable: whether investment capital, especially from gold ETFs, will return strongly when the Fed's monetary policy outlook changes.
