World gold prices received positive signals from Wall Street experts as expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to raise interest rates are weakening. Kitco's latest survey shows that 90% of experts predict gold prices will increase next week.
Weekly gold surveys show that optimistic sentiment is overwhelming Wall Street, while individual investors also continue to maintain a positive view of gold price prospects.
Last week, spot gold prices started around 4,342.50 USD/ounce and increased sharply after US inflation data helped the market reduce concerns about the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in the September meeting. Gold prices at one point reached 4,450.23 USD/ounce on August 13, the highest level in about 10 weeks, before under profit-taking pressure.
By the end of the week, gold prices once fell to 4,311.22 USD/ounce but quickly recovered after US retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6%, strengthening expectations that the Fed could keep interest rates unchanged in September. At the time Kitco conducted the survey, spot gold prices were traded around 4,376.82 USD/ounce, up 0.84% in the week.
90% of Wall Street experts predict gold prices will increase
This week, 10 experts participated in a Kitco survey. Among them, 9 people, equivalent to 90%, predict that gold prices will continue to increase next week. Only 1 expert, equivalent to 10%, predicts a price decrease and no expert believes that gold prices will move sideways.
Marc Chandler – Managing Director of Bannockburn Global Forex – predicts gold prices may rise and head towards testing the 200-day moving average around 4,503 USD/ounce.
Rich Checkan - Chairman and CEO of Asset Strategies International - also maintains a positive view. According to him, the growth rate of both consumer inflation and producer prices in the US has slowed down, along with the weakening of the labor market, causing investors to believe that the Fed will not raise interest rates in the September meeting. Gold prices are therefore receiving clear support after jumping from the accumulation zone around 4,000 USD/ounce.
However, not all experts are absolutely optimistic. Daniel Pavilonis - senior commodity broker at StoneX Group - believes that gold is still fluctuating in a relatively broad price range and does not have strong enough momentum to resume the large upward trend. He also warned that the market needs to monitor technical signals if gold prices cannot set new highs.
Most individual investors remain optimistic
The results of an online survey of 222 individual investors also showed that the side predicting gold price increases continued to prevail. 150 people, equivalent to 68%, predict gold price increases next week.
Meanwhile, 38 people, equivalent to 17%, believe that gold prices will fall. 34 people, equivalent to 15%, predict that the market will enter a sideways or accumulation phase.
Next week, the market will continue to monitor a series of US economic data, the most notable of which is the minutes of the Fed's monetary policy meeting held on July 28-29, expected to be released on August 19. Data on manufacturing, housing, unemployment claims and PMI may also affect interest rate expectations, thereby directly affecting gold price movements.
