The latest Kitco News gold survey shows that industry experts are extremely bullish on gold prices. The largest majority in months of 10 analysts participating in the Kitco News gold survey predicts higher prices in the coming days.
Eight experts (80%) expect gold prices to rise next week, only one expert (10%) predicts a fall, and another expert believes gold will move sideways in the short term.
Adrian Day, chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management, said he expects gold prices to continue to rise. “The current momentum is certainly in favor of gold, even as North American investors continue to sell,” he said.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com, said there is little to stop gold from setting new highs as global markets continue to react to the unpredictability of the new US President.
“At this point, we can ignore technical and fundamental analysis,” he said. “Gold is a safe-haven market in the midst of the chaos surrounding the new US administration. No one can predict what the next words or actions will be.”
“I still expect gold to rise,” said Marc Chandler, chief executive of Bannockburn Global Forex. “A new record high is likely as the dollar corrects lower. Trump’s stance may also encourage some central banks to accumulate gold.”
“This week the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada and possibly Sweden's Riksbank will cut interest rates, while the Fed will keep them unchanged,” Chandler added.
Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco, agrees, saying that gold could set a new record high this week. “The charts are very positive, and risk aversion is becoming more evident as the market awaits potentially disruptive policy actions from the Trump administration,” he said.
Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, is neutral for next week. “I think the threat of tariffs is overblown and that is keeping safe-haven prices in the market,” he said. “Also, the Lunar New Year is disrupting the seasonal rally.”
Meanwhile, Rich Checkan - president and COO of Asset Strategies International - predicts that gold will correct downward in the short term.
“While I am confident that the long-term trend for gold will continue to be bullish, in the short term, gold prices will correct this week after last week’s strong rally to a near new record high,” he said. “Combining the recent rally with the uncertainty this week regarding the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, I think gold will face profit-taking pressure.”
Notable economic data this week
Monday: US New Home Sales.
Tuesday: US durable goods orders, consumer confidence.
Wednesday: Monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve.
Thursday: ECB monetary policy decision, US Q4 GDP, US weekly jobless claims, US pending home sales.
Friday: US PCE index, personal income and spending.