In the latest updated report, precious metal analysts at Heraeus believe that the gold market is entering a sensitive phase, as the previous upward trend has shown signs of weakening.
According to the analysis group, the diễn biến of gold prices in March has formed a noteworthy downward signal on the technical chart, thereby increasing the possibility that the market will need more accumulation time before it can continue to go up.
One of the factors that has the greatest influence on the developments of gold today is the interest rate policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Heraeus said that the Fed is in a difficult position when it has to simultaneously handle two important goals: controlling inflation and supporting growth and jobs.
According to the organization's analysis, inflation may remain high for some time to come, even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show signs of cooling down after the ceasefire information.
In that context, the Fed may have to consider keeping interest rates at a high level, even not excluding the possibility of further tightening if price pressure is not controlled as expected.
However, the US labor market is sending out not entirely positive signals. Although the number of non-farm jobs in March increased by 178,000, exceeding market forecasts, Heraeus noted that most of the data adjustments in recent times have been downwards. In the 12 months reported since January 2025, there have been up to 11 months of job data being adjusted downwards, with an average adjustment of 51,000 jobs.
According to Heraeus, the total number of non-farm workers in the US has almost stagnated since the end of 2024, after a strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. If cost of capital remains high for a long time and economic growth slows down, the job market may face more pressure. At that time, the Fed may be forced to switch to lowering interest rates to support the economy.
Changes in interest rate expectations are clearly affecting investor sentiment in the gold market. Heraeus said that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates 1-2 times in 2026 increased to 27.3% on April 9, from 14.1% before the ceasefire information on April 7.
According to the analysis group, the market's initial reaction was that assets that had been sold off recovered, while assets that had increased sharply before such as energy and the weakening USD. This development has contributed to supporting gold prices to rise again in the short term.
However, the most notable point in Heraeus's report lies in the technical signal appearing on the gold monthly chart. Gold prices in March formed a "submerged decline" candlestick pattern - a pattern often seen as a warning signal that the upward trend is weakening.
Accordingly, the opening price in March was higher but the closing price was lower than the previous month, showing that selling pressure has gradually overwhelmed buying pressure after a period of strong increase.
Heraeus recalled that the last time this model appeared was in April 2022. After that, gold prices fell continuously for 6 months, from the 2,000 USD/ounce range to about 1,600 USD/ounce. However, the organization also believes that the current context is not completely the same as before.
Prolonged inflation and low real interest rates may still continue to support gold holding demand, especially when investors are still concerned about global economic prospects.
In other words, the current downward signal is not enough to confirm that the long-term upward trend of gold has ended. However, in the short term, the market may enter a period of correction or prolonged sideways movement.
Heraeus believes that if the recovery momentum of the recent week reverses, the next support zone for gold prices may be around the March bottom, equivalent to about 4,100 USD/ounce.
On the supporting side, gold buying activities by central banks continue to be an important bright spot. According to Heraeus, in February, central banks net bought 27 tons of gold, a sharp increase compared to the level of 5 tons in January.
In which, the Central Bank of Poland bought an additional 20.2 tons, the largest increase since February 2025. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan also continued to increase gold reserves, while Turkey and Russia were noteworthy net sellers.
The gold accumulation trend of central banks has lasted for many years and has become a solid support for the market. In the past year alone, the amount of gold added to the global official reserves reached 863 tons.
This shows that gold still plays an important role in the reserve strategy of many countries, especially in the context of large global geopolitical and financial risks.
