World gold prices are regaining momentum after months of adjustment. Mr. Bernard Dahdah, a precious metals analyst at Natixis, a precious metals analyst at Natixis - a French investment and financial services bank belonging to BPCE Group - raised his forecast for gold prices at the end of 2026 to 5,000 USD/ounce, from the previous level of 4,600 USD.
World gold prices are returning to an upward trend after a long period of adjustment. According to Mr. Bernard Dahdah, gold prices could reach 5,000 USD/ounce by the end of 2026, about 400 USD/ounce higher than his previous forecast.
At the time of forecasting, spot gold price was at 4,645.30 USD/ounce, slightly down 0.12% during the day. The precious metal has maintained the important support zone of 4,000 USD/ounce and is heading towards an increase of nearly 15% in August. If the upward momentum is maintained, this may be the strongest month of gold price increase since September 1999.
According to Mr. Dahdah, the new increase in gold prices began in early August when negative economic data forced the market to adjust interest rate expectations. Changes in monetary policy expectations have created more momentum for the precious metal.
Gold prices then received additional push from the US Treasury Department's move on the bond market. The agency announced a doubling of the scale of buying back 10-year and 30-year government bonds to $4 billion, in the context that the US's total debt has exceeded $40,000 billion.
Mr. Dahdah said that this move comes after the yield of 30-year US government bonds rose to 5.3%, the highest level in about two decades. High long-term yields increase concerns about the stability of the bond market, and may put pressure on mortgage and real estate markets.
Although high yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold - an unprofitable asset - the precious metal is still supported by concerns about fiscal stability and the US bond market. According to Mr. Dahdah, these concerns are increasing the need for defense against the risk of the USD depreciating.
The outlook for US public debt is considered one of the factors that may continue to support gold prices in the remainder of the year. Mr. Dahdah said that concerns about public debt have become an important driving force for gold prices in August and may continue to create momentum in the coming time.
In addition, the fact that gold prices maintained above the 4,000 USD/ounce range after a period of adjustment shows that buying power is still relatively strong. If factors related to the US fiscal year, the bond market and the USD continue to create instability, demand for gold may continue to be strengthened.
Not only raising the year-end forecast, Mr. Dahdah also believes that gold prices may average 5,000 USD/ounce in 2027. Thus, expert Natixis's view shows that expectations of a high price level are not limited to the last few months of 2026 but may extend to next year.
With gold prices heading towards an increase of nearly 15% in August, the 5,000 USD/ounce mark is becoming a noteworthy price threshold for the market. However, to maintain the upward momentum, gold still needs to overcome obstacles from US bond yields, the USD and the diễn biến of the Fed's monetary policy.
Currently, Mr. Bernard Dahdah's forecast is one of the notable price increase targets in the gold market. In the context that gold prices have recovered strongly after months of adjustment, the developments of US public debt, the bond market and interest rate expectations will continue to be important factors determining whether the precious metal can reach 5,000 USD/ounce by the end of the year or not.
